Can Red Bull win on merit this year?

[Rob Dylan]

Singapore was seen as a race Red Bull would really challenge on this year, as their car usually works around the tighter, more corner-heavy tracks on the calendar. Obviously due to circumstances, that simply didn't happen this weekend. But as the track started to dry, both Hamilton and Bottas were on the same pace as Ricciardo for much of the remainder of the race, and the remaning Red Bull simply didn't challenge Lewis for the lead.

If we ignore Max Verstappen's terrible luck currently, is there actually going to be another chance this year for Red Bull to get a win or indeed actually compete for one? Or is that car doomed to spend the whole of 2017 fighting for fourth?

[mario]

Singapore was seen as a race Red Bull would really challenge on this year, as their car usually works around the tighter, more corner-heavy tracks on the calendar. Obviously due to circumstances, that simply didn't happen this weekend. But as the track started to dry, both Hamilton and Bottas were on the same pace as Ricciardo for much of the remainder of the race, and the remaning Red Bull simply didn't challenge Lewis for the lead.

If we ignore Max Verstappen's terrible luck currently, is there actually going to be another chance this year for Red Bull to get a win or indeed actually compete for one? Or is that car doomed to spend the whole of 2017 fighting for fourth?

Horner has alleged that Ricciardo had a problem with low oil pressure with his gearbox which prevented him from pushing as hard as he could have, though at the same time conceding that Hamilton was not pushing as hard as he could have. The conditions probably did play a little into Mercedes's hands as well; they had been having problems with overheating the ultrasoft tyres in the hotter conditions in practise, so the lower track temperatures in the race did help ease those problems.

I would say that a potential victory for Red Bull in the remaining races on pure pace alone is probably unlikely to occur in dry conditions, since at most of the upcoming circuits the power advantage of the Mercedes and Ferrari engines would probably outweigh any possible chassis advantage that Red Bull have.

I think that the best chance they may have of winning another race would be in changeable or wet conditions, where they might have a chance to make a difference through strategy and the power advantage of their rivals would be reduced. The problems Ferrari had in Monza does suggest the possibility that they could be vulnerable in wet conditions, but it has to be said that, when we have had wet sessions this season, Hamilton has proven to be quite competitive.

With that in mind, I think that their best chance of taking a win at the remaining circuits on the calendar would be Interlagos. We have seen quite a few rain affected races in recent years, and the middle sector of that track should play to their strengths (though it is still a bit of a long shot overall).

[Rob Dylan]

I'm just wondering because it seemed throughout most of this year that they were hyping up their progress over the year, but haven't really had anything to show for it. Their competitiveness appeared to have grown, especially with Ricciardo's win at Baku. But Verstappen's car has broken down countless times, and for Ricciardo there really hasn't been all that much catching up with the other two teams. It's rare to have seen the Red Bulls really dicing at the very front, and Ricciardo's 2nd at this race was actually his and Red Bull's first of the season.

I guess I've just been waiting for the promised development to come, and am still waiting for any evidence that it exists!

[mario]

I'm just wondering because it seemed throughout most of this year that they were hyping up their progress over the year, but haven't really had anything to show for it. Their competitiveness appeared to have grown, especially with Ricciardo's win at Baku. But Verstappen's car has broken down countless times, and for Ricciardo there really hasn't been all that much catching up with the other two teams. It's rare to have seen the Red Bulls really dicing at the very front, and Ricciardo's 2nd at this race was actually his and Red Bull's first of the season.

I guess I've just been waiting for the promised development to come, and am still waiting for any evidence that it exists!

They did themselves no favours when talking about how their updates for the Spanish GP would be so significant, only for the updates to be less dramatic than most had expected, whilst Mercedes said nothing and then turned up to the Spanish GP with a pretty major update to their car.

That moment, to me, does partially underline why I feel that Red Bull have made a fairly limited impression on the top two teams. We have seen that Mercedes have been bringing in a consistent stream of updates throughout this season, and their form in recent years suggests that they are capable of keeping up to speed with their rivals: as for Ferrari, although they have been a bit up and down in terms of development performance in recent years, this year they have also been bringing in regular upgrade packages for their car.

Red Bull have not been completely quiet in terms of updates, but the problem is that they're not really developing their car any more rapidly than Ferrari or Mercedes are. It may also be that, with Renault focussing on their own works team (and rumoured to be cutting their ties with Red Bull at the end of next year), some resources from Renault which might have gone towards Red Bull are now probably going into the Renault works car, which has helped their relative competitiveness at the expense of Red Bull.