Overall Predictions 2018

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UncreativeUsername37
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Overall Predictions 2018

Post by UncreativeUsername37 »

We did this for 2013 and earlier, and I'm bringing it back! Make your predictions for the championship as a whole and, if you want, explain the reasoning behind it all. And this time, there'll be a winner, because almost everything is an adapted version of a Predicament Predictions category.

Blank form
Top 10 drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Teams
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Bonus
Pole Trophy:
DHL Fastest Lap Award:
Least reliable team: measured by mechanical retirements
Reject of the Year:
DBTMOTY: driver will be eligible if they do at least 11 races with a team
MLP: Sirotkin, Gasly, Hartley, and Leclerc are eligible
Unrejectified drivers:
Drivers sacked before season ends:

Points are as in Predicament Predictions, except:
Right driver, wrong position doesn't count for teams since there are ten of them
Unrejectified drivers: 1 point each
Drivers sacked before season ends: 2 points each


Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton - Mercedes increase the gap and he's still their better driver
2. Bottas - the car brings this solidly midfield driver up to 2nd
3. Vettel - better driver in second best team
4. Verstappen - Red Bull and Ferrari are close enough for him to get between the Ferraris
5. Räikkönen - still disappointing
6. Ricciardo - as last year, not undeserving of a top 3 drive and not champion material
7. Sainz - after an off-season to really get in the team, reminds everyone what a second choice Hülkenberg was
8. Alonso - drags the McLaren between the Renaults
9. Hülkenberg - meh
10. Vandoorne - with a season under him, not too far off Alonso

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault - looked good in testing, didn't they
5. McLaren - looked good in testing when the car worked
6. Force India - not too far off Renault
7. Haas
8. Williams - Stroll continues to be a tease, whilst Sirotkin's performances are reminiscent of Bruno Senna in their consistency and slowishness
9. Toro Rosso
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Hamilton
Least reliable team: McLaren (too funny not to happen)
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Hartley (more down to Gasly being good)
MLP: Gasly
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: none
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This Could Be You
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by This Could Be You »

Top 10 drivers
1. Vettel (just)
2. Hamilton
3. Bottas
4. Verstappen (quite distant, due to unreliability conspicuously absent in the more conservative Renault cars... )
5. Ricciardo
6. Raikkonen (disappointing)
7. Sainz
8. Hulkenberg
9. Alonso
10. Ocon

Teams
1. Mercedes (just)
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Haas (positions 5-8 could go any way really, so why not go for a slightly left-field option)
6. Mclaren
7. Force India (terrible early on, but back to 2016/17 form from mid-season onwards)
8. Toro Rosso
9. Williams (a return to 2011/2013 form)
10. Sauber (they'll probably score >10 points though)

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Verstappen
Least reliable team: Mclaren
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Ericsson
MLP: Hartley (Why not? Frankly, all of them will be looking at the lower points places, so it all comes down to luck really )
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: None
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Enforcer
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Enforcer »

Top 10 drivers
1. Vettel - purely because I have a marginal preference for him over Lewis
2. Hamilton
3. Verstappen
4. Bottas
5. Ricciardo
6. Raikkonen
7. Alonso
8. Hulkenberg
9. Sainz
10. Grosjean

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Haas
6. McLaren - unreliability will deny them 4th place, though.
7. Torro Rosso
8. Force India - hard to know where they'll end up, a lot of 2017 parts still on the car
9. Williams
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Hamilton
Least reliable team: McLaren. I think we're going to see that their reliability issues were 50% combustible Honda powerplants and 50% their own packaging issues.
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Vandoorne. Don't think he's a bad driver, but I don't see an outstanding candidate here. Raikkonen will probably be generally furthest from his team mate since he's a clear #2, but he'll have enough good days and his car is good enough that he won't fall far enough down the grid. If McLaren can get around the podium places enough it might renew Alonso who usually puts his team-mates away.
MLP: Hartley
Unrejectified drivers: Hartley
Drivers sacked before season ends: None.
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Aguvazk
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Aguvazk »

Top 10 drivers
1. Vettel
2. Hamilton
3. Ricciardo
4. Verstappen
5. Raikkonen
6. Bottas
7. Hulkenberg
8. Alonso
9. Sainz
10. Ocon

Teams
1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Force India
6. Mclaren
7. Toro Rosso
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Ricciardo
Least reliable team: Williams
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Stroll and Sirotkin
MLP: Gasly
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne.
(Haas unrejectified as a team)
Drivers sacked before season ends: Sirotkin, and enter Kubica, giving some points to Williams.


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Bobby Doorknobs
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Bobby Doorknobs »

Making an educated guess:

Top 10 drivers
1. L. Hamilton
2. V. Bottas
3. S. Vettel
4. M. Verstappen
5. D. Ricciardo
6. K. Raikkonen
7. F. Alonso
8. N. Huelkenberg
9. C. Sainz
10. S. Vandoorne

Gets progressively tougher to call the more you move down the table:

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. McLaren
5. Renault
6. Force India
7. Toro Rosso
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Also Hamilton, but it will probably be close like last year.
Least reliable team: McLaren
Reject of the Year: Marcus Ericsson for what will have been five years of F1 experience and little to show for it
DBTMOTY: Stoffel Vandoorne for reasons Enforcer has alluded to. Call it 'Gerhard Berger Syndrome'.
MLP: Hartley
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne. The others we'll just have to wait and see.
Drivers sacked before season ends: None sacked, but it's probable there will be a change somewhere for some reason. Maybe Kubica replacing Sirotkin for a weekend just to shut people up.
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Dj_bereta
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Dj_bereta »

Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton
2. Bottas
3. Vettel
4. Verstappen
5. Riccardo
6. Raikkonen
7. Hulkenberg
8. Alonso
9. Sainz
10. Vandoorne

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. McLaren
6. Haas
7. Force India
8. Toro Rosso
9. Sauber
10. Williams

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Lewis Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Lewis Hamilton
Least reliable team: Renault
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Raikkonen
MLP: Gasly
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: None
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Benetton
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Benetton »

Top 10 drivers
1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Valtteri Bottas
3. Max Verstappen
4. Daniel Ricciardo
5. Sebastian Vettel
6. Kimi Räikkönen
7. Carlos Sainz
8. Esteban Ocon
9. Nico Hulkenberg
10. Fernando Alonso

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. Force India
6. McLaren
7. Haas
8. Williams
9. Toro Rosso
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Lewis Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Lewis Hamilton
Least reliable team: McLaren
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Marcus Ericsson
MLP: Leclerc
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne,
Drivers sacked before season ends: None
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mario
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by mario »

Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton - the W09 seems to be as competitive as the W08, and if Mercedes still have an edge in qualifying trim, I can see Hamilton using the strategic advantage coming from that to his advantage.
2. Vettel - I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar situation to last year, with Vettel managing to get close to and sometimes beating the two Mercedes drivers, but not being able to live with Hamilton and Mercedes over a full season.
3. Bottas - I can see him managing to take a few wins and a reasonable number of podiums, but he has shown a tendency to have a bit of a mid-season slump. I expect that inconsistency means he'll probably be in a similar position to 2017, albeit perhaps with a chance of being a bit closer to Hamilton and Vettel at the end of the year.
4. Verstappen - if, and it is a big if, Renault can improve on their reliability, I can see him getting 4th through being able to more consistently maximise the performance of the car.
5. Ricciardo - he was also hit by reliability issues late in the season: again, if the car holds together, I can see him doing reasonably well, but potentially being shaded by Verstappen over the course of the season.
6. Raikkonen - he only just about beat Ricciardo at the end of the season, and there does seem to be a feeling that Red Bull are a bit closer to Ferrari at the start of this season, albeit still slightly behind them. However, with Ferrari likely to focus on Vettel and if Red Bull exhibit more reliability, plus Kimi now
7. Sainz - he already looked fairly competitive against Hulkenberg at the end of last season, and I can see him coming on strong towards the latter part of this season as he gets more accustomed to the team and the car.
8. Hulkenberg - I can see another solid season from him, but I just get the feeling that Sainz might have slightly higher peaks in his performances than Hulkenberg might have. In some ways, this season really does feel like it's kind of make or break for him - he's already been outshone by Perez in the past, and being beaten by Sainz may start to make some doubt if he really is quite as strong as he has customarily been portrayed as.
9. Alonso - there seem to be a few doubts as to the performance of McLaren, as the car has shown flashes of performance that suggest it is comparable to Renault, but at the same time seemed to be a bit frail.
10. Grosjean - this one is a bit more of a long shot, but if Haas are as competitive as the pre-season times suggest, I can see one of the Haas drivers getting into the top 10. Out of the two, I do think that Grosjean, despite his brake problems in the past, probably will have an edge over Magnussen over a full season (Magnussen not being particularly consistent in his performances).

Teams
1. Mercedes - they already have a fairly decent car to work from, and with the ever tighter engine usage rules per season, their strong reliability in recent years counts strongly in their favour.
2. Ferrari - I expect they'll put up a strong challenge, but the pre-season tests suggested that they were very slightly behind Mercedes, whilst there were a few wondering if fuel consumption might be an issue for them too.
3. Red Bull - I can see them gaining a bit on Ferrari and Mercedes, but losing out over the full season due to reliability issues.
4. Renault - probably best of the rest, as the RS17 seemed to have moved to the front of the midfield by the end of last season, but they seem to be some way off the top three and probably won't close the gap that much over the season.
5. McLaren - it seems tight between them, Renault and Haas: I expect that reliability issues will drop them behind Renault, but I think that McLaren's superior driving line up will see them ahead of Haas over the full season.
6. Haas - I can see them starting out reasonably strong, but slipping back over the year (they've not been that strong on in-season development so far): if they can bank a decent number of points early on, then they might hold onto 6th.
7. Force India - Perez sounded fairly pessimistic at the pre-season tests, as did Ocon. The team apparently have a major upgrade for Melbourne that might see them jump up the list, but it's going to be a fairly tough ask to punch above their weight yet again now that their rivals are becoming stronger.
8. Toro Rosso - the car has run reliably (though there were a few rumours in the German press that their "brake by wire" issue during the second test was actually an ERS failure), but the consensus seems to be that their times on the longer runs were not as promising as their headline times suggested. Red Bull have also strongly hinted that Toro Rosso really are a test bed for them this year to see if Honda might be worth gambling on for 2019, so I expect that Toro Rosso's car will be more of a rolling test bed.
9. Williams - the observers from the pre-season tests indicated that Williams's car looked like the handling balance was pretty terrible and that all of their drivers had difficulty with initial turn in on corner entry. Lowe has also indicated that is a major problem too - sadly, I can see most people taking it out on the drivers when, frankly, it sounds as if it's the car that is the real problem.
10. Sauber - I expect that they'll be closer, but recovering from their problems in 2017 will take time and I think that Alfa Romeo's financial support probably won't really make much of a difference until 2019.

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Vettel
Least reliable team: McLaren - they've had minor integration issues throughout testing, and there is still a question over whether Renault can match Ferrari and Mercedes in terms of reliability this season.
Reject of the Year: Williams - they've taken a radical direction with their car, but Lowe's initial comments suggest that it might have been too radical and they've perhaps taken a wrong turn.
DBTMOTY: Raikkonen
MLP: Gasly - I suspect that the Toro Rosso drivers have a better car, though if the midfield pack are that strong, it may come down to a few lucky races.
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: None
Martin Brundle, on watching a replay of Grosjean spinning:
"The problem with Grosjean is that he want to take a look back at the corner he's just exited"
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Aislabie
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Aislabie »

Drivers
1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Sebastian Vettel
3. Valtteri Bottas
4. Max Verstappen
5. Daniel Ricciardo
6. Kimi Raikkonen
7. Nico Hulkenberg
8. Fernando Alonso
9. Carlos Sainz
10. Romain Grosjean
11. Stoffel Vandoorne
12. Kevin Magnussen
13. Esteban Ocon
14. Sergio Perez
15. Brendon Hartley
16. Lance Stroll
17. Pierre Gasly
18. Sergey Sirotkin
19. Charles Leclerc
20. Marcus Ericsson

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. McLaren
6. Haas
7. Force India
8. Toro Rosso
9. Williams
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Lewis Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Max Verstappen
Least reliable team: McLaren
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Kimi Raikkonen
MLP: This is literally a crapshoot. Hartley.
Unrejectified drivers: Only Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: Nobody.
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by AdrianBelmonte_ »

Top 10 drivers
1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Sebastian Vettel
3. Max Verstappen
4. Fernando Alonso (PATRIOTISM FTW!!!)
5. Valtteri Bottas
6. Daniel Ricciardo
7. Kimi Räikkönen
8. Carlos Sainz
9. Nico Hulkenberg
10. Stoffel Vandoorne

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Renault
6. Force India
7. Haas
8. Toro Rosso
9. Sauber
10. Williams

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Lewis Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Lewis Hamilton
Least reliable team: Toro Rosso
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Sergey Sirotkin and Marcus Ericsson
MLP: Leclerc
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne, Leclerc and Gasly
Drivers sacked before season ends: Sirotkin and Hartley
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good_Ralf
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by good_Ralf »

Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton
2. Vettel
3. Bottas
4. Ricciardo
5. Verstappen
6. Raikkonen
7. Hulkenberg
8. Alonso
9. Sainz
10. Ocon

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Force India
6. McLaren
7. Williams
8. Haas
9. Toro Rosso
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Vettel
Least reliable team: McLaren
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Ericsson
MLP: Leclerc
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: N/A
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Bleu
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by Bleu »

1. Hamilton
2. Verstappen
3. Vettel
4. Ricciardo
5. Bottas
6. Räikkönen
7. Ocon
8. Hülkenberg
9. Perez
10. Alonso

1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Force India
5. Renault
6. McLaren
7. Haas
8. Williams
9. Toro Rosso
10. Sauber
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Verstappen
Least reliable team: Renault
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Räikkönen
MLP: Gasly
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne, Gasly
Drivers sacked before season ends: Magnussen
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CarloSpace
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by CarloSpace »

Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton
2. Bottas
3. Vettel
4. Ricciardo
5. Verstappen
6. Räikkönen
7. Alonso
8. Hülkenberg
9. Grosjean
10. Sainz Jr.

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. McLaren
6. Haas
7. Force India
8. Toro Rosso
9. Williams
10. Sauber

Bonus

Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Verstappen
Least reliable team: Toro Rosso
Reject of the Year: Magnussen
DBTMOTY: Hartley
MLP: Sirotkin
Unrejectified drivers: Vandoorne
Drivers sacked before season ends: None
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dr-baker
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by dr-baker »

Top 10 drivers
1. Hamilton
2. Ricciardo
3. Vettel
4. Bottas
5. Verstappen
6. Raikkonen
7. Perez
8. Ocon
9. Hulkenberg
10. Sainz

Teams
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Force India
5. Renault
6. Williams
7. McLaren
8. Haas
9. Toro Rosso
10. Sauber

Bonus
Pole Trophy: Hamilton
DHL Fastest Lap Award: Vettel
Least reliable team: McLaren
Reject of the Year: Williams
DBTMOTY: Raikkonen
MLP: Sirotkin
Unrejectified drivers: Sirotkin
Drivers sacked before season ends: Kvyat. Oh wait...
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UncreativeUsername37
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Re: Overall Predictions 2018

Post by UncreativeUsername37 »

Weird stats
There were two least reliable teams, McLaren and Red Bull, and two DBTMsOTY, Grosjean and Vandoorne. I gave full points for guessing either. Or I would have, but no one got Red Bull or Grosjean. Everyone got the Pole Trophy right and no one got the Fastest Lap Award right. Only two people didn't guess Williams for ROTY, but even they were still wrong.

Scores
1. good_Ralf (39)
2. Aislabie (37)
3. mario (36)
4. UncreativeUsername37 (35)
5. This Could Be You (34)
6. Enforcer (33)
7. Simtek (32)
8. Benetton (30)
9. Dj_bereta (29)
10. dr-baker (27)
11. AdrianBelmonte_ (26)
=. CarloSpace (26)
13. Bleu (24)
14. Aguvazk (19)

Full table
Because it's very possible I screwed something up.

Code: Select all

                      123456789X 123456789X PFLRDMUS To
good_Ralf             5311112 1  5332 2  2  2 2  1 2 39
Aislabie              5312112 1  5332  2    2 2    2 37
mario                 53121111   5332  2    2 2    2 36
UncreativeUsername37  5112121 1  5332    2  2 2    2 35
This Could Be You     11121111   5332222    2 2    2 34
Enforcer              111111 11  533222     2 2 2  2 33
Simtek                511211 11  533        2 2 2  2 32
Benetton              5111111 1  5  2 2  2  2 2  1 2 30
Dj_bereta             5112112 1  5  2  2  2 2      2 29
dr-baker              5111111 12 5       2  2 2    2 27
AdrianBelmonte_       531 22111  5        2 2    1   26
CarloSpace            511111 1 2 5  2  2    2      2 26
Bleu                  511121 11  5    2  2  2        24
Aguvazk               1112112 1    32 2     2        19
Rob Dylan wrote:Mercedes paying homage to the other W12 chassis by breaking down 30 minutes in
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