The 2019 Silly Season thread

Post by **Ataxia** » 19 Jul 2018, 22:16

Going full EJ with these predictions:

Mercedes - Hamilton/Bottas
Status quo here.

Ferrari - Vettel/Leclerc
Apparently Charles is a done deal...we wait with bated breath.

Red Bull - Ricciardo/Verstappen
Renault - Hulkenberg/Sainz
Both the same again.

Haas - Magnussen/Vandoorne
I've heard McLaren may not keep Vandoorne. Haas seems like a realistic target, linking back up with Magnussen.

Force India - Ocon/Perez
I don't see Papa Stroll buying in. I'd imagine this would be the same for a bit longer...

McLaren - Raikkonen/Norris
Yes. You heard. They want Norris in the car next year, and Alonso's probably off to IndyCar. With experience at a premium, McLaren will have to dig out their little black book...

Toro Rosso - Gasly/Ticktum
I don't think Ticktum's going to have the superlicense points, but Red Bull might just force this...or snap up former junior charges Albon or Sette Camara from F2. We can but hope.

Sauber - Ericsson/Giovinazzi
Ericsson's part of the furniture at Sauber. I don't rate Giovinazzi at all, but I don't see who else it can be. Fuoco, perhaps?

Williams - Sirotkin/Stroll
The same.

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 19 Jul 2018, 23:06

Predicament Predictions, Bonus Round: The 2019 Grid

Mercedes - Lewis Hamilton and Esteban Ocon
- I'm taking every single piece of silly season nonsense and assuming it's all true. Ocon to Mercedes.

Ferrari - Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo
- The most anticipated intra-team fight since Alonso / Räikkönen in 2014, except this one will be good.

Red Bull - Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Jr.
- Daniel jumps ship to Ferrari last minute and Red Bull offer their former junior a salary he can't refuse. Carlos makes the upgrade to Red Bull in the most anticipated line-up since Alonso / Räikkönen in 2014. Except this one won't matter because the car won't finish a race with the Honda engine in it.

Renault - Nico Hulkenberg and Valtteri Bottas
- Bottas survives by the skin of his team after Carlos jumps ship last-minute and Renault need a reliable replacement. The car's getting better and Bottas gets a few podiums over the season. Nico of course doesn't get any.

Haas - Kevin Magnussen and Charles Leclerc
- A promotion for Charles after Romain was finally given the shove. The car's about dependable as it was in 2018 and so Charles pulls out a surprise podium at Monaco. Kevin is reliable as ever.

Force India - Sergio Pérez and Lance Stroll
- Those Canadian Pesos get Stroll the second seat, which props up Force India for another year. It's the most one-sided teammate battle on the grid in 2019, with Stroll scoring 2 points to Pérez's 47.

McLaren - Kimi Räikkönen and Lando Norris
- Another mediocre car sees them stuck in the mid-field yet again. Lando takes up Alonso's role of getting decent points in a sub-par car with regular occurrence. Kimi takes up Kimi's role of being continuously disappointing whilst earning the second highest pay on the grid behind Hamilton.

Toro Rosso - Pierre Gasly and Dan Ticktum
- Annoyed he didn't get the promotion to Red Bull, Gasly goes off the rails and tries to jump the Red Bull ship. Has a bad season. Ticktum is average. Toro Rosso finish last.

Sauber - Antonio Giovinazzi and George Russell
- Sauber snap up an excellent line-up for themselves, and land some tidy points. The car is better after their hefty income provided by Leclerc's season the previous year.

Williams - Romain Grosjean and Marcus Ericsson
- Grosjean gets one last hurrah, being the one capable driver with the lowest self-respect to drive for the Williams team in 2019. Ericsson gets hired for the money, and ends up outperforming Romain anyway. The Frenchman probably gets dropped before the year end to make way for Galael or something.

Peteroli34 · Post by **Peteroli34** » 20 Jul 2018, 00:09

2019 Predictions

Mercedes: Hamilton/Bottas - No Change

Ferrari: Vettel/Raikkonen - Despite Leclerc being linked with the seat Ferrari retain the same lineup

Red Bull: Verstappen/Ricciardo - No Change

Renault: Hulkenberg/Ocon With no Mercedes seat forthcoming Ocon jumps ship to Renault

Haas: Magnussen/Leclerc Unwilling to promote straight to Ferrari Leclarc is placed at Haas as he progresses up the grid

Force India: Perez/Stroll Stroll jumps ship from Williams

Mclaren: Vandoorne/Norris Alonso retires from F1 while Norris is drafted in. Unable to court a big name Vandoorne remains

Toro Rosso: Gasly/Sainz With Red Bull going with Honda power they no longer feel the need to loan Sainz to Renault and with no seat available in the main team he returns to Toro Rosso

Sauber: Ericsson/Giovinazzi Ericsson being part of the furniture at Sauber he remains. Giovinazzi gets a full time race seat an Italian driver baked by Ferrari and Alfa Romeo backed team.

Williams: Sirotkin/Russell A Closer tie with Mercedes sees them take Russell.

IceG · Post by **IceG** » 20 Jul 2018, 08:14

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bott ... t-1061678/

Boringly predictable - "Valtteri please stay as a #2 driver for another year, here's some money"

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 20 Jul 2018, 11:13

IceG wrote:https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bottas-new-contract-1061678/

Boringly predictable - "Valtteri please stay as a #2 driver for another year, here's some money"

Though it seems predictable, I genuinely didn't expect that. The feel of his position in Force India just made me assume that Ocon would be on his way up this year.

Bottas isn't a bad driver by any means, but I don't see him winning any championships any time soon, or even improving that much from his current form. I think it would have been more cromulent for them to hire Ocon whilst he's on his way up, and use him as Hamilton's successor.

Pacific Edge · Post by **Pacific Edge** » 20 Jul 2018, 13:06

Just a q, I thought Grosjean's contract was 3 years, so won't he be back at Haas next year anyway?

Post by **mario** » 20 Jul 2018, 17:04

Rob Dylan wrote:
IceG wrote:https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bottas-new-contract-1061678/

Boringly predictable - "Valtteri please stay as a #2 driver for another year, here's some money"
Though it seems predictable, I genuinely didn't expect that. The feel of his position in Force India just made me assume that Ocon would be on his way up this year.

Bottas isn't a bad driver by any means, but I don't see him winning any championships any time soon, or even improving that much from his current form. I think it would have been more cromulent for them to hire Ocon whilst he's on his way up, and use him as Hamilton's successor.

That option is still potentially open for the team for 2020 given that Bottas's contract extension is for a single year.

That said, I would say that Bottas's form is pretty solid and he is perhaps a little underrated - when you consider that he could easily have won a few races and been unlucky with retirements and being caught up in mistakes by others, he could quite easily be a lot closer to the front than he is.

Post by **Ataxia** » 22 Jul 2018, 09:17

Rumours now everywhere that Ocon's off to Renault to partner Hulkenberg, leaving Sainz as an option for McLaren - or a return to Toro Rosso.

I know there's people whinging about the predictability of F1 but honestly, this is not predictable. Like, at all.

Post by **tommykl** » 22 Jul 2018, 12:54

Ataxia wrote:Rumours now everywhere that Ocon's off to Renault to partner Hulkenberg, leaving Sainz as an option for McLaren - or a return to Toro Rosso.

I know there's people whinging about the predictability of F1 but honestly, this is not predictable. Like, at all.

Wasn't Ocon a Renault junior driver in the past? Or am I just making this up?

Post by **mario** » 22 Jul 2018, 15:59

tommykl wrote:
Ataxia wrote:Rumours now everywhere that Ocon's off to Renault to partner Hulkenberg, leaving Sainz as an option for McLaren - or a return to Toro Rosso.

I know there's people whinging about the predictability of F1 but honestly, this is not predictable. Like, at all.

Wasn't Ocon a Renault junior driver in the past? Or am I just making this up?

No, I don't think he was - I think that they were interested in him and may have made an approach, but was signed up with Mercedes by that time (you might be thinking of Mercedes's decision to lend him to Renault as their reserve driver).

Post by **tommykl** » 22 Jul 2018, 19:52

mario wrote:
tommykl wrote:
Ataxia wrote:Rumours now everywhere that Ocon's off to Renault to partner Hulkenberg, leaving Sainz as an option for McLaren - or a return to Toro Rosso.

I know there's people whinging about the predictability of F1 but honestly, this is not predictable. Like, at all.

Wasn't Ocon a Renault junior driver in the past? Or am I just making this up?

No, I don't think he was - I think that they were interested in him and may have made an approach, but was signed up with Mercedes by that time (you might be thinking of Mercedes's decision to lend him to Renault as their reserve driver).

That's what I was thinking of, yes. I knew he'd been associated with Renault at some point, I couldn't remember in what capacity.

Spectoremg · Post by **Spectoremg** » 23 Jul 2018, 06:14

PTWOTY (pretentious twoddle word of the year). Cromulent.

Pacific Edge · Post by **Pacific Edge** » 23 Jul 2018, 08:59

I don't know, Ocon to Renault, and Sainz to McLaren just doesn't seem to make sense for anyone involved. Ocon is doing well at FI, and overall Sainz is doing ok at Renault, why Renault would want to disrupt their continuity, I don't know, and a move to McLaren would be disastrous for Sainz

Post by **Ataxia** » 23 Jul 2018, 09:00

Spectoremg wrote:PTWOTY (pretentious twoddle word of the year). Cromulent.

You need to embiggen your vocabulary, it's a perfectly cromulent word.

Spectoremg · Post by **Spectoremg** » 23 Jul 2018, 09:03

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 23 Jul 2018, 09:37

Pacific 777 wrote:I don't know, Ocon to Renault, and Sainz to McLaren just doesn't seem to make sense for anyone involved. Ocon is doing well at FI, and overall Sainz is doing ok at Renault, why Renault would want to disrupt their continuity, I don't know, and a move to McLaren would be disastrous for Sainz

And suddenly Ocon to Renault makes all the sense in the world

Post by **Miguel98** » 23 Jul 2018, 10:38

Let's see the silly season as it stands, with only 1 GP before the summer break:

Mercedes have already confirmed both drivers, so if nothing unusual happens, Hamilton and Bottas will be the drivers of the team for the year. The same can be said of Red Bull - Max is confirmed, and Ricciardo should be confirmed this week or next.

Now, let's go to the dominoes: the marketplace is in Renault as we speak. Why this?
Because the rumor is that Renault approached Ocon. And if this moves happen, it will generate a rídicula quantity of changes. Let's look at what might happen:

If Force India - which today is rumored to go into administration - lose Ocon to Renault (much because Ocon saw the Bottas to renew and do not want to stay 2 years waiting to then suck on the finger before going to a factory team), the main candidate to join Pérez in Force India must be Stroll - Papa wants to buy a better place on the grid for him than Williams, and he even talks to himself until he can buy the whole team . Pérez / Stroll can be a very interesting line up, and I foresee this to be the line-up of Force India (or Force Stroll) next season.

In relation to Renault, in principle the Hulkenberg is (I think it already has contract for the year), and the second place is between two pilots: Sainz and Ocon. Apparently the team has already boarded Ocon for the place, and Sainz could be without the place in the team. Now, this is a tricky decision: Sainz this year was beaten by the Hulkenberg, and I think Ocon is better than Sainz. But if Sainz leaves, there will only be one destination on the grid: Toro Rosso, under the clause of that clause that Red Bull can have him back whenever they desire too. Hartley is definitely not going to be on the grid, and his place is either going to Sainz or Dan Ticktum, who is fighting for the title of F3 as we speak. Renault should be Hulk/Ocon and Toro Rosso should be Sainz/Gasly.

In Ferrari: Leclerc is in principle shoe-in the team. But it is Ferrari, so they still keep Kimi (which would not even be such a bad decision, Vettel wants to keep Kimi one more year clearly and Kimi is even making a good season this year). But I think they do not want to lose Leclerc anyway, so I really think the team will stay with Vettel / Leclerc for the year.
At Sauber we already know that Ericsson has a lifetime contract, so it will stay, and it seems that the second place of the team is a fight between two drivers: the team wants Kimi (and Sauber already said that the objective in the next year is the 4th place ....), but if you can not get Kimi, I already said that you want Giovinazzi. Therefore, Kimi / Ericsson or Gio / Ericsson will be the line-up. I bet more in the first until - see Kimi make heroics in a Sauber makes me mouth water, although I like to see Giovinazzi in F1.
In Haas, I'm beginning to believe that nothing will change: the only change that could occur would be if Pérez left Force India, but with the possible exit from Ocon, I do not see that happening. So Grosjean / Magnussen should be the line-up for another year.
Note that the situation at Ferrari may be even more interesting: if Kimi stays, Leclerc must go to Haas (most likely to Grosjean, who loses his place on the grid like that), and Giovinazzi goes to Sauber. It's the two possible scenarios right now in these three teams.

There are still two teams left: McLaren and Williams. At first, the team wanted Kimi and Norris as drivers - the second will be there next season, almost certainly. Kimi I do not see him signing for McLaren honestly, so I think the team will line up with Vandoorne and Norris, and Alonso to go to IndyCar with the McLaren entry next season. There's still a card to play, mind you. Incidentally, two possible letters: the first is Nicholas Latifi, who has ties to Renault and whose father made a ridiculous investment in the team (Papa Latifi now owns 30% of McLaren). The other is Markelov, who can end up on the team due to being a Renault junior, and Renault impinging on McLaren. My heart was on it if it was Markelov / Norris, but I have a feeling it's going to be Norris / Latifi on the team.

Finally, at Williams: Sirotkin should be almost certain, and with Stroll coming out, he should make room for another pay-driver. I know Kvyat has already been looked at before, and it's supposed to be kind of 8 million budget still for the place, but I do not know. I think the fight will be between Kvyat and Markelov, and I see the team to be totally Russian honestly. I'll bet on Sirotkin / Markelov.

There is one person missing here btw: George Russell, who is well on the way to the title at F2. I see Russell being 3rd Mercedes driver and Williams test driver. It's going to end up in a Williams seat in 2020. I do not even talk about Pascal anymore, because he should get the FE seat with Mercedes.

Pacific Edge · Post by **Pacific Edge** » 23 Jul 2018, 13:40

Wizzie wrote:
Pacific 777 wrote:I don't know, Ocon to Renault, and Sainz to McLaren just doesn't seem to make sense for anyone involved. Ocon is doing well at FI, and overall Sainz is doing ok at Renault, why Renault would want to disrupt their continuity, I don't know, and a move to McLaren would be disastrous for Sainz

And suddenly Ocon to Renault makes all the sense in the world

Aaaah, ok, thanks, that clarifies things a bit. If Ocon goes to Renault, there is a good chance things would look bad for Sainz, as he could only go to McLaren, Williams, or Torro Rosso. The only thing that could throw him a decent lifeline would be if Haas kick Grosjean out early and give Sainz that seat, but that is like a 5% chance.

Edit: Wow, how things have changed to the point where if you could only go to Williams or McLaren, you are in trouble

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 26 Jul 2018, 08:41

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/137623/toro-rosso-tech-chief-key-to-move-to-mclaren

James Key leaving Toro Rosso for McLaren (95% confirmed). I'm not sure who this affects more in the near-future: Toro Rosso needed him to pull miracles out of sub-par chassis with a sub-par budget, so there's a vital talent that's going to be missing there. McLaren are obviously trying the old "let's buy everyone talented" route, which is admirable, and we'll see if it solves the endless issue they've since.... I want to say mid-2012?

Pacific Edge · Post by **Pacific Edge** » 26 Jul 2018, 13:15

ESPNF1 reporting it too. Shrewd move by McLaren, despite not getting the RBR job, Key knows his stuff. And having designed Torro Rossos with a Renault Engine, he is more familiar with them.

Post by **mario** » 26 Jul 2018, 17:54

Pacific 777 wrote:ESPNF1 reporting it too. Shrewd move by McLaren, despite not getting the RBR job, Key knows his stuff. And having designed Torro Rossos with a Renault Engine, he is more familiar with them.

I agree that it is a shrewd move on their part as Key is quite a highly regarded figure in the paddock - if given a reasonable amount of latitude to reform the team, it could significantly improve their competitiveness, and his previous experience with the Renault power unit will be very useful to the team as they try and optimise the car around it.

It does seem that Tost is digging in his heels though, having insisted that Key remains under contract with Toro Rosso for the longer term. There was a suggestion that Red Bull might be trying to use this as a way of exerting pressure on McLaren to give up Norris - if they are as interested as they reportedly were, it would make sense for them to have a second crack at trying to secure Norris by offering to release Key from his contract sooner rather than later.

Post by **Ataxia** » 26 Jul 2018, 18:11

Ironic that it's Key who needs to be unlocked from a contract...

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 27 Jul 2018, 21:43

I'm hearing scary rumours about Force India's financial situation. No link and I don't claim to understand it all, but it looks like the team's going into administration this weekend...

Enforcer · Post by **Enforcer** » 27 Jul 2018, 22:46

Confirmed:

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/44984140

But at least it seems to be because of an imminent takeover, and not because they can't pay their creditors and staff. Maybe Eddie will find a few hundred million down the back of his sofa and buy his team back? (Monumentally unlikely, I know)

Still, it's not exactly inspiring about the future of smaller teams. You also have to wonder how much longer Williams, who's only business is F1, can go on staggering around the back.

IceG · Post by **IceG** » 28 Jul 2018, 08:22

This motorsport story

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/forc ... s-1064911/

states that Perez is one of the creditors who are suing - not sure how that plays in the seat merry-go-round...

Looks like Ocon needs to get into a Renault.... or into a Williams with a sweet Mercedes engine deal.

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 28 Jul 2018, 08:53

This gives me memories of when Hülkenberg didn't get paid by Sauber back in 2013. Pérez is unfortunately caught between a rock and a hard place here. He has a right to ask for the money owed him, but in doing so the team that would be paying him might go bankrupt. There's been rumours of last-minute buyers (including a certain Mr. Stroll) which are hopefully true, but it's all a little too close to jeopardy for comfort.

Post by **mario** » 28 Jul 2018, 20:56

Rob Dylan wrote:This gives me memories of when Hülkenberg didn't get paid by Sauber back in 2013. Pérez is unfortunately caught between a rock and a hard place here. He has a right to ask for the money owed him, but in doing so the team that would be paying him might go bankrupt. There's been rumours of last-minute buyers (including a certain Mr. Stroll) which are hopefully true, but it's all a little too close to jeopardy for comfort.

It does sound as if the situation is rather complex and difficult for all involved - you have to hope that the team can find a way to tough it out until the promised redistribution of prize money occurs, as it would be a real shame to lose a team that really punches above its weight and is probably one of the more popular teams in the midfield.

By the sounds of things, Pérez has claimed that his lawsuit, whilst drastic action, was a move that he took in the belief that it would save the team - his argument was that, by putting the team into administration, it stopped another creditor from pushing for a winding up order that would have seen the team going into liquidation.

AdrianBelmonte_ · Post by **AdrianBelmonte_** » 28 Jul 2018, 21:51

Here's the man himself explaining the whole thing

https://twitter.com/SChecoPerez/status/ ... 1434647553

Klon · Post by **Klon** » 03 Aug 2018, 10:32

All bets are off, engage panic mode! :shock:

Jan Magnussen · Post by **Rob Dylan** » 03 Aug 2018, 11:17

https://redbullracing.redbull.com/article/daniel-leave-team

So this is happening. Ricciardo to leave Red Bull at the end of the year.

IceG · Post by **IceG** » 03 Aug 2018, 11:31

Good move for Dani, just hope he ends up in a decent car, like a Ferrari and not like a Renault...

Post by **Ataxia** » 03 Aug 2018, 11:32

Like a garden tornado, that's a real plot twist...

Rather hoping Gasly gets the Red Bull drive, I think he's probably ready. Sainz doesn't impress me, and I don't think Horner/Marko would be too inclined to put him in Ricciardo's now-vacant seat given he forced the move to Renault
- and had a frosty relationship with Verstappen in the past.

Klon · Post by **Klon** » 03 Aug 2018, 11:46

Ataxia wrote:Like a garden tornado, that's a real plot twist...

I hate you.

Post by **Miguel98** » 03 Aug 2018, 12:05

IceG wrote:Good move for Dani, just hope he ends up in a decent car, like a Ferrari and not like a Renault...

Collieafc · Post by **Collieafc** » 03 Aug 2018, 12:14

And just like that, what was turning into a sedate silly season has just went into meltdown.

Hes basically only got two real alternatives if he wants to be number 1, Renault (a risk but at least the teams willing to open their wallet in the name of improvement) or McLaren (Which is a bigger risk and assumes Alonso has made up his mind on leaving).

Ferrari would trump this, but I cant help but think Vettel will do all he can to block this. Stranger things have happened though.

As for his replacement, Gasly surely has to be the natural choice here if RB want somebody quickly but who do they get to replace him at Toro Rosso? Unless...

Riccardo and Alonso swap seats in something crazy...

IceG · Post by **IceG** » 03 Aug 2018, 12:39

Miguel98 wrote:
IceG wrote:Good move for Dani, just hope he ends up in a decent car, like a Ferrari and not like a Renault...

Botheration

Pacific Edge · Post by **Pacific Edge** » 03 Aug 2018, 15:40

Collieafc wrote:And just like that, what was turning into a sedate silly season has just went into meltdown.

As for his replacement, Gasly surely has to be the natural choice here if RB want somebody quickly but who do they get to replace him at Toro Rosso? Unless...

Riccardo and Alonso swap seats in something crazy...

What about a Ricciardo/Sainz direct swap?

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 03 Aug 2018, 16:59

Pacific 777 wrote:
What about a Ricciardo/Sainz direct swap?

I could see this happening.

Aguvazk · Post by **Aguvazk** » 03 Aug 2018, 17:12

Ricciardo's was the more logical to do for him and for Renault as well.
So, we have:
Mercedes, Ham and Bot
Renault, Ric and Hul

My predictions
Ferrari, Vet and Rai
Red Bull Honda, Ver and Gas
McLaren, Sai and Nor
Sauber Alfa Romeo, Lec and Eri (maybe Gio, depends who put more money)
Toro Rosso, Har and ? (Van? Some japanese? Buemi????)
Now he have a dilemma... The Force India situation. I see 2 scenarios
1.
Force Stroll, Str and Per
Hass, Mag and Gro
Williams, Sir and Oco
2.
Force Mercedes, Oco and Rus
Hass, Mag and Per
Williams, Str and Sir

We gonna have a good silly season...

Post by **mario** » 03 Aug 2018, 19:16

Ataxia wrote:Like a garden tornado, that's a real plot twist...

Rather hoping Gasly gets the Red Bull drive, I think he's probably ready. Sainz doesn't impress me, and I don't think Horner/Marko would be too inclined to put him in Ricciardo's now-vacant seat given he forced the move to Renault
- and had a frosty relationship with Verstappen in the past.

Well, Ricciardo's move and the fact that Renault are dumping Sainz has shaken things up - we're seeing a change at a top team, but it's not the change we were expecting.

From the way that Red Bull have reacted, I wonder if they have been caught off guard by Ricciardo's decision - it's as if they took it for granted that he wouldn't leave, especially with Ferrari and Mercedes seemingly out of the picture. Verstappen sounded pretty confident back in late June that Ricciardo was staying on, whilst only a month ago Horner thought that signing a new deal with Ricciardo was just "a formality" because "there is a desire from both sides to continue the relationship".

Equally, it's also been noted that, unlike Vettel's departure from the team, Red Bull aren't ready to announce a replacement for Ricciardo. With Vettel, you sense that the team were fairly sure that he might leave and had already lined up a replacement long before he made his final decision, but here it feels as if they were confident that they wouldn't need that back-up option and have been surprised by his move.

On the other side of the table, it's a big coup for Renault - it gives them arguably one of the strongest line ups on the grid and will give Hulkenberg a real incentive to up his game to ensure that he doesn't get overshadowed. I guess that Ricciardo is essentially trying to do what Hamilton did at Mercedes, which is to get in on a factory team just before a shift in regulations that might tip things more in their favour - although it is probably a bigger gamble in his case given that Renault are the smallest manufacturer team on the grid.

It does have interesting implications for the rest of the field too - it's going to kill off any chance of Ocon going to Renault, so now a lot of his hopes are likely to rest on what happens to Force India, whilst it begs the question of what will happen to Sainz given the suggestions that the relationship he had with Verstappen was too troubled for Red Bull to want to put them back together again in the same team.

I agree that it is more likely that Gasly will be promoted to Red Bull to serve as a No.2 driver to Verstappen - we have heard Horner mention his sales pitch to Verstappen to stay on did mention the opportunity to mould the team around him, and I think he'll now seek to do that with Ricciardo on the way out.

It does shift Red Bull's shortage of drivers down to Toro Rosso - not ideal, but less damaging to them. It might help secure Hartley's position in the team though - we've heard that they've already struggled to find a replacement earlier in the season, so trying to now fill two seats at the same time sounds like an even less likely prospect.
That other seat is going to be a real problem for Red Bull though - with no driver of their own ready, they need to find somebody else pretty sharpish, as I think it is very unlikely that Sainz will want to go back to Toro Rosso.

The way that things might play out between McLaren and Red Bull over Key and Norris will be very interesting now - both of them are going to be fairly desperate to get their hands on the person working for the other team, and arguably the situation has now given McLaren more leverage in those negotiations than they might have at first seemed to have.