Ferrari...same old, same old.....

[wsrgo]

As a self-confessed Ferrari fan, I must say it's been frustrating to see this team always being touted as a 'frontrunner', but never being at the top for the last few years. I guess the last time when they had the best package in the field was Monza 2010, disregarding the Pirelli rigmarole in early 2013.

Why has this happened? Good initial performances lead to false dawns, their in-season 'developments' don't work. Even in this new formula, they're clearly lagging behind Mercedes. Ferrari has not been the same since Jean Todt left, is it because of Stefano Domenicali? Or simple Italian culture, as Schumacher and Todt have said before, directly or indirectly?

[Jocke1]

Patience young padawan learner, they'll get there.

[CoopsII]

In Alonso you must trust.

[jackanderton]

Sometimes you just have to say the other team were better. Mclaren and Ferrari have both spent several years scratching their heads trying to eclipse Newey and failing. Not shamefully, they just don't possess that extraordinary talent. I do think Whitmarsh and Domenicali are lacking. One has moved on, the other has one more year I reckon.

Personally I have enjoyed the fact Alonso has had no title wins since robbing Massa of that victory when Massa was still in the title race and driving well. I have the deepest admiration for his driving talents but he is the most conniving political driver in the sport and so far seems to only be able to be the lead driver in a team rather than in a team of equals.

[Ataxia]

Ferrari were struggling with electrical issues at Melbourne, so one cannot write them off after one race.

I've got a little story about the inner workings of Ferrari prior to the Schumacher-Byrne-Brawn dream team joining. Every morning, each technician in the team would have a copy of La Gazetta dello Sport (or similar) on their desks. During this mid-1990s lean period for the team, this would usually be full of negative reviews of the Ferrari F1 organisation and thus would be quite demoralising for any reader. When Ross Brawn joined the team, this practice was stopped in order to provide focus on sorting out the team's performance.

I wonder if that, since Brawn moved, they've reverted to wallowing in their negative reviews again.

[wsrgo]

Ferrari were struggling with electrical issues at Melbourne, so one cannot write them off after one race.

I've got a little story about the inner workings of Ferrari prior to the Schumacher-Byrne-Brawn dream team joining. Every morning, each technician in the team would have a copy of La Gazetta dello Sport (or similar) on their desks. During this mid-1990s lean period for the team, this would usually be full of negative reviews of the Ferrari F1 organisation and thus would be quite demoralising for any reader. When Ross Brawn joined the team, this practice was stopped in order to provide focus on sorting out the team's performance.

I wonder if that, since Brawn moved, they've reverted to wallowing in their negative reviews again.

Wow, I didn't know of that..I knew of their shambolic workings, the "wine on the work table" things, but this..I didn't know.

Personally I feel that Stefano Domenicali is to blame. Domenicali's easygoing, no-risk approach is good enough to keep a team at a level, but not to rise above it. I don't think it's got that much to do with the technical expertise...they might not have Newey, but they do have Fry, Allison and Tombazis...all of whom have worked in other teams and have done well. Heck, they even have Rory Byrne as an advisor! Think about it, Aldo Costa was fired after the dud that was the F150 Italia, but he (alongwith a few others) are working wonders in Mercedes.

[mario]

As a self-confessed Ferrari fan, I must say it's been frustrating to see this team always being touted as a 'frontrunner', but never being at the top for the last few years. I guess the last time when they had the best package in the field was Monza 2010, disregarding the Pirelli rigmarole in early 2013.

Why has this happened? Good initial performances lead to false dawns, their in-season 'developments' don't work. Even in this new formula, they're clearly lagging behind Mercedes. Ferrari has not been the same since Jean Todt left, is it because of Stefano Domenicali? Or simple Italian culture, as Schumacher and Todt have said before, directly or indirectly?

Part of their issues seem to be a hangover from their traditional bias towards track testing solutions, given the ease with which they could conduct track tests in the past, rather than utilising simulation tools.

Although it is true that teams in the UK could and did test at places like Silverstone, factors such as the cooler weather conditions and distance from the factory meant that track testing was a more expensive and slightly less reliable method for them, such that there was a more direct pay off for "virtual" testing instead. Now that testing is very heavily regulated, Ferrari have basically been trying to catch up with their rivals in a field that they have traditionally not invested that heavily in, although they are still somewhat lagging behind compared to outfits like McLaren (part of the reason why they sought to hire de la Rosa when the chance came).

There have also been a number of issues that have stemmed from the upgrades they made a few years ago to their wind tunnel when they switched from a 50% scale to a 60% scale model (the maximum permitted under the regulations). Although they were able to overcome some of those issues by using Toyota's and Sauber's wind tunnels, that creates a different set of correlation issues when you are trying to verify whether the results from one wind tunnel are consistent with the results from another.
The situation wasn't helped by the fact that Toyota's own facilities are used by several other teams - McLaren were rumoured to have been using them very heavily in 2012 and 2013 and increasingly by Toyota themselves as part of their sportscar racing program.

Sometimes you just have to say the other team were better. Mclaren and Ferrari have both spent several years scratching their heads trying to eclipse Newey and failing. Not shamefully, they just don't possess that extraordinary talent. I do think Whitmarsh and Domenicali are lacking. One has moved on, the other has one more year I reckon.

Personally I have enjoyed the fact Alonso has had no title wins since robbing Massa of that victory when Massa was still in the title race and driving well. I have the deepest admiration for his driving talents but he is the most conniving political driver in the sport and so far seems to only be able to be the lead driver in a team rather than in a team of equals.

It is true that the recent formula, being very heavily dominated by aerodynamics, did shift the balance towards Red Bull given that their aero department was one of the strongest in the field. Newey is certainly talented in that respect, but Prodromou, the Head of Aerodynamics at Red Bull (formerly of McLaren) deserves credit in that department too - it's worth noting that Ferrari reportedly tried to lure Prodromou to them a few years ago and that it is Prodromou that McLaren have sought to bring on board for 2015.
Developments have now put a greater emphasis on the powertrain again, but it has to be said that it is in an area where Ferrari have been a bit weak (advanced turbocharged designs), such that it hasn't helped them as much as perhaps they hoped. It's also worth noting that Mercedes have been very pointedly targeting the title this year with much heavier investment in key areas and an aggressive recruitment program and were probably one of the first major teams to shift their primary focus onto 2014, so it's perhaps another reason why Ferrari are lagging behind a bit in that department too.

As an aside, with regards to Massa and the 2010 season I do think that perhaps you are overstating Massa's chances - Massa only had 67 points after the British GP (the preceding race), such that both Rosberg and Kubica were technically in a better position for the title (having 90 and 83 points respectively) than Massa. It was unusual enough that Alonso made up a 47 point deficit (the best part of two race wins behind) to go into the final race with an eight point lead, and it would have been even more unlikely for Massa to make up a 78 point deficit even if he could have sustained that level of form. Mathematically he was still in the fight, but in practicality I cannot, even in the most optimistic scenario, have seen him actually battling for the title in 2010.

[Rusujuur]

Eh, well, these things happen. Ferrari was weak around 85-95 and since then they have been there or there about every season. Ok, so the last title was in 2007 but they have been challenging almost every year. 2008 Massa almost nailed it, 2009 they failed to find the "gimmic", in the following Vettel-Newey dominance Alonso has been one of the few who could actually beat them on a good day. This year they seem to have a second best engine but that means they have to struggle againt 8 Merc Powered cars. They should beat FI but fighting the other three teams + Red Bulls seems to be hard. Maybe they manage to catch up in that departement but who knows? At least they are not completely lost like NcLaren last year even if the position in the end of the year COULD be 5th.

[Shizuka]

Ferrari's problem might just be the same as McLaren's: the team boss.
Watch how Ron got back and they got a double podium (okay, thanks to Ricciardo's DSQ), after not scoring a single one for the whole past season. In fact, Domenicali and Whitmarsh both are easy-going. Could be a coincidence?

[Paul Hayes]

It's hard to imagine it being some sort of "Italian culture" thing (which is probably pretty offensive anyway!), when they won plenty of titles in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, when they would have been almost entirely staffed and run by Italians.

[mario]

Ferrari's problem might just be the same as McLaren's: the team boss.
Watch how Ron got back and they got a double podium (okay, thanks to Ricciardo's DSQ), after not scoring a single one for the whole past season. In fact, Domenicali and Whitmarsh both are easy-going. Could be a coincidence?

In the case of McLaren, I'd argue that Ron's return and McLaren's improvement in form is coincidental given that development of the MP4/29 would have started under Whitmarsh's instruction during the 2013 season. If anything, I feel a bit sorry for Whitmarsh given that Ron will get the credit this season for the upturn in performance this season when he had nothing to do with the initial development of the car in the first place.

[AndreaModa]

I see the current state at Ferrari much in the same way as the period in the early to mid 1980s after Villeneuve lost his life. Alonso playing the role of Alboreto, albeit with more talent - winning races here and there, always there or thereabouts in the title race, but never quite managing to string together a decent season for one reason or another.

Now I know it's early days for this sort of prediction, but I think there's a chance that Kimi won't even see out the whole season at Ferrari if the car proves to be uncompetitive. Alonso will almost certainly go to McLaren for 2015 and partner Magnusson who will generally be better than Button over the course of this year. Jenson will probably pack it in rather than pedal around in the midfield unless a team like Williams can nab him and they are competitive enough for his liking.

My point in all this rambling is that I can realistically see Ferrari having a completely new line-up in 2015, and if the performance isn't there, I really think they'll struggle to attract any top drivers. Will Vettel move there and face the prospect of a dismal car? I can only see that happening if Red Bull capitulate this year and I don't think they're that bad. Ferrari have the very real prospect of having their weakest driver line-up for a generation (excluding the temporary Salo/Irvine set-up in 1999) in 2015, and that alongside the prospect of another poor car is bad news.

[DanielPT]

Now I know it's early days for this sort of prediction, but I think there's a chance that Kimi won't even see out the whole season at Ferrari if the car proves to be uncompetitive. Alonso will almost certainly go to McLaren for 2015 and partner Magnusson who will generally be better than Button over the course of this year. Jenson will probably pack it in rather than pedal around in the midfield unless a team like Williams can nab him and they are competitive enough for his liking.

My point in all this rambling is that I can realistically see Ferrari having a completely new line-up in 2015, and if the performance isn't there, I really think they'll struggle to attract any top drivers. Will Vettel move there and face the prospect of a dismal car? I can only see that happening if Red Bull capitulate this year and I don't think they're that bad. Ferrari have the very real prospect of having their weakest driver line-up for a generation (excluding the temporary Salo/Irvine set-up in 1999) in 2015, and that alongside the prospect of another poor car is bad news.

I also think that it is likely for Ferrari to change to two new drivers for 2015. After all, there is sound logic in the scenario of Kimi exiting through the small door and Alonso moving on to greener pastures like McLaren or even Williams if they prove capable of staying on the development race and have a decent budget next year. I think Alonso is the kind of driver that will accept a pay cut if he is more or less assured to have competitive machinery at his disposal. But I won't say that Ferrari are not able to gather a strong line-up next year. For instance, if they can snap The Hulk and prize Bottas from Williams, I am certain that with those two they have a very, very decent pair. Or even salvage Vergne from a more than certain axe at Toro Rosso if Ricciardo's pace proves to be the real deal. Remember that Vergne had better race pace than Ricciardo for most, if not all, their time together at Toro Rosso. Something that prompted our overlords to write that now infamous article that jinxed Vergne and completely ruined his chances of a Red Bull seat. Are there chances of Ferrari luring these drivers? i think so since Ferrari is still the biggest name in F1.

[dr-baker]

As a self-confessed Ferrari fan, I must say it's been frustrating to see this team always being touted as a 'frontrunner', but never being at the top for the last few years. I guess the last time when they had the best package in the field was Monza 2010, disregarding the Pirelli rigmarole in early 2013.

Why has this happened? Good initial performances lead to false dawns, their in-season 'developments' don't work. Even in this new formula, they're clearly lagging behind Mercedes. Ferrari has not been the same since Jean Todt left, is it because of Stefano Domenicali? Or simple Italian culture, as Schumacher and Todt have said before, directly or indirectly?

Well, I am an unashamed Williams fan, and I can think of only a handful of good performances from the team since the end of the 2004 season, the Australian GP this weekend having been one of them. Ferrari have at least been consistently better than Williams, so from my perspective, what are you complaining about?

[CarlosFerreira]

I'm a little sad to see how far Ferrari has dropped. Mostly, I am beginning to wonder if we'll see a third title for Alonso. With Hamilton and Vettel as the current Godfathers (in better cars than the Ferrari), a second tier, may-have-a-go-at-a-Championship-if-everyone-else-falls-asleep composed of Rosberg and Ricciardo and people such as The Hulk, Bottas and K-Mag* clearly waiting in the wings as future Champions, Alonso is beginning to look a little... dated. 2006 was a long time ago.

_____
*I'm not getting ahead of myself at all here.

[wsrgo]

As a self-confessed Ferrari fan, I must say it's been frustrating to see this team always being touted as a 'frontrunner', but never being at the top for the last few years. I guess the last time when they had the best package in the field was Monza 2010, disregarding the Pirelli rigmarole in early 2013.

Why has this happened? Good initial performances lead to false dawns, their in-season 'developments' don't work. Even in this new formula, they're clearly lagging behind Mercedes. Ferrari has not been the same since Jean Todt left, is it because of Stefano Domenicali? Or simple Italian culture, as Schumacher and Todt have said before, directly or indirectly?

Well, I am an unashamed Williams fan, and I can think of only a handful of good performances from the team since the end of the 2004 season, the Australian GP this weekend having been one of them. Ferrari have at least been consistently better than Williams, so from my perspective, what are you complaining about?

Because they probably have 50 times the budget that Williams have..

[watka]

I would agree that the main reasons for Ferrari's failings are those that Mario pointed out.

We've said it to death here, but Ferrari's and Schumacher's success in the late nineties and early noughties was built on the most rigorous testing programme that the sport has ever seen. Ferrari could throw loads of money at a problem and then test a solution on the Fiorano circuit almost immediately. No date in the calendar was unavailable for testing in their view. Ferrari were able to solidly build a better and better car each year.

Nowadays, they simply can't do that. Their current mediocre performance seem to be a hangover from that. They have faced many problems with the car over the past few years but just haven't been able to develop a solution in the time available. They've had to deal with affectively testing new parts on race weekends, which is something that they just haven't got used to. Coupled with the problems with their facilities, notably the windtunnel, they cannot turn things around like they used to. I also think that it doesn't help that they are an independent team doing everything for themselves and being based out in Italy. Everything is a little more out of reach for them and they don't have many "partners" in the Formula 1 world - that is to say it is harder for them to learn things from other teams and they don't have the benefit of having outsourcers sharing the workload as much as other teams do.

[AdrianSutil]

Whilst I agree with virtually everything that has been pointed out, I'm surprised everyone seems to forget 2012. Yes, the year where Alonso came agonisingly close to the Championship after being the ONLY driver in the field who held a flame to Vettel. He deserved the title in 2012, not Ferrari. There's nothing wrong with Alonso's ability, or Kimi's for that matter.

and if its time for Ferrari to slink into the upper-midfield for a year or five then so be it because it'll be interesting to see who makes the step up. Force India and Williams look the most likely.

[pasta_maldonado]

Whilst I agree with virtually everything that has been pointed out, I'm surprised everyone seems to forget 2012. Yes, the year where Alonso came agonisingly close to the Championship after being the ONLY driver in the field who held a flame to Vettel. He deserved the title in 2012, not Ferrari. There's nothing wrong with Alonso's ability, or Kimi's for that matter.

and if its time for Ferrari to slink into the upper-midfield for a year or five then so be it because it'll be interesting to see who makes the step up. Force India and Williams look the most likely.

I hate to go off-topic, but AdrianSutil, please check your email inbox as you've got a very important message.

[Benetton]

There is a real possibility that Ferrari could finish 5th in the constructors (behind Mercedes, Red Bull, Williams and McLaren) and with a pairing of Alonso and Raikkonen that would be of catastrophic proportions!

[dr-baker]

As a self-confessed Ferrari fan, I must say it's been frustrating to see this team always being touted as a 'frontrunner', but never being at the top for the last few years. I guess the last time when they had the best package in the field was Monza 2010, disregarding the Pirelli rigmarole in early 2013.

Why has this happened? Good initial performances lead to false dawns, their in-season 'developments' don't work. Even in this new formula, they're clearly lagging behind Mercedes. Ferrari has not been the same since Jean Todt left, is it because of Stefano Domenicali? Or simple Italian culture, as Schumacher and Todt have said before, directly or indirectly?

Well, I am an unashamed Williams fan, and I can think of only a handful of good performances from the team since the end of the 2004 season, the Australian GP this weekend having been one of them. Ferrari have at least been consistently better than Williams, so from my perspective, what are you complaining about?

Because they probably have 50 times the budget that Williams have..

Again, they have loadsa money. I would love Williams to have a budget like that. So I say again, that'sa not so bad, it'sa nice budget...

[AdrianSutil]

Whilst I agree with virtually everything that has been pointed out, I'm surprised everyone seems to forget 2012. Yes, the year where Alonso came agonisingly close to the Championship after being the ONLY driver in the field who held a flame to Vettel. He deserved the title in 2012, not Ferrari. There's nothing wrong with Alonso's ability, or Kimi's for that matter.

and if its time for Ferrari to slink into the upper-midfield for a year or five then so be it because it'll be interesting to see who makes the step up. Force India and Williams look the most likely.

I hate to go off-topic, but AdrianSutil, please check your email inbox as you've got a very important message.

Messages have been read and replied

[Paul Hayes]

We've said it to death here, but Ferrari's and Schumacher's success in the late nineties and early noughties was built on the most rigorous testing programme that the sport has ever seen. Ferrari could throw loads of money at a problem and then test a solution on the Fiorano circuit almost immediately. No date in the calendar was unavailable for testing in their view. Ferrari were able to solidly build a better and better car each year.

That was also true in the late 1980s and early 1990s though, when they weren't any better off than they are now.

[mario]

I would agree that the main reasons for Ferrari's failings are those that Mario pointed out.

We've said it to death here, but Ferrari's and Schumacher's success in the late nineties and early noughties was built on the most rigorous testing programme that the sport has ever seen. Ferrari could throw loads of money at a problem and then test a solution on the Fiorano circuit almost immediately. No date in the calendar was unavailable for testing in their view. Ferrari were able to solidly build a better and better car each year.

Nowadays, they simply can't do that. Their current mediocre performance seem to be a hangover from that. They have faced many problems with the car over the past few years but just haven't been able to develop a solution in the time available. They've had to deal with affectively testing new parts on race weekends, which is something that they just haven't got used to. Coupled with the problems with their facilities, notably the windtunnel, they cannot turn things around like they used to. I also think that it doesn't help that they are an independent team doing everything for themselves and being based out in Italy. Everything is a little more out of reach for them and they don't have many "partners" in the Formula 1 world - that is to say it is harder for them to learn things from other teams and they don't have the benefit of having outsourcers sharing the workload as much as other teams do.

The fact that they also do everything in house means that, to a certain extent, their financial advantage hasn't always been quite as substantial as some have suggested. It's worth bearing in mind that Ferrari is the only manufacturer where the chassis and engine divisions are both integrated into the same organisation - Mercedes still operates separate divisions for their powertrain (which originally started out as Ilmor) and chassis manufacturing operations, as did Renault in the past (the chassis being manufactured by the team in Enstone but engine development being undertaken by Renault Sport in Viry-Châtillon).

With that in mind, it is worth considering that the manufacturer backed teams - such as Red Bull (the works Renault team) and, in the past, McLaren (before Diamler withdrew its backing a few years ago) - were in effect being subsidized as the cost of engine development was being borne by an external party. Renault Sport, for example, mentioned that they were spending €120 million a year on the V8 engines, even accounting for the development freeze, but only recouping €60 million from the teams in return, effectively giving their customers a fairly sizeable subsidy (especially Red Bull, who would have had the most favourable financial deal given their position as the works team).

It's something that was a factor back in the 1980's as well to a certain extent - when Renault introduced their pneumatic value system in 1985, there were rumours that system alone had cost Renault $27 million to develop. Ferrari might have had a generous budget thanks to their partnership with Fiat, but some of their rivals had fairly substantial backing themselves that, although off the books, did at least partially offset Ferrari's financial strength.
If anything, I recall that Eddie Jordan commented about one reason why Jordan were able to compete with Ferrari and McLaren in 1999 was because the budget differences weren't that large (I think that he reckoned Ferrari were spending about $100 million in 1999 whereas Jordan had a budget, IIRC, of about $50-60 million) in 1999, but the disparity grew very rapidly once Mercedes, Ferrari and to a lesser extent BMW started driving up spending with their development wars in the early 2000's.