The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
I found this on wtf1.com and I like it a lot. Sheffield University released a study which uses statistics to decide who are the greatest drivers. They say that having a good car matters more than being a more versatile driver when it comes to getting good results.
There's loads of interesting (and controversial) conclusions here. Prost & Alonso >> Senna, Schuey is 9th (he would've been 3rd were it not for his Mercedes years), Lauda didn't make the top 100 and CHRISTIAN FITTIPALDI 12TH?! And no (Gilles) Villeneuve, who according to this study was less of a great than his son lol.
I don't know what the numbers in the right-hand column mean, I like to think it means seconds but that's unlikely. But what matters most is... who got the wooden spoon? I'm betting it's Ide.
http://www.wtf1.co.uk/study-greatest-f1-driver/
There's loads of interesting (and controversial) conclusions here. Prost & Alonso >> Senna, Schuey is 9th (he would've been 3rd were it not for his Mercedes years), Lauda didn't make the top 100 and CHRISTIAN FITTIPALDI 12TH?! And no (Gilles) Villeneuve, who according to this study was less of a great than his son lol.
I don't know what the numbers in the right-hand column mean, I like to think it means seconds but that's unlikely. But what matters most is... who got the wooden spoon? I'm betting it's Ide.
http://www.wtf1.co.uk/study-greatest-f1-driver/
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
Residuals are essentially the difference between the obtained result and that predicted by estimates and averages. In this case, I'm guessing this is relative to the average driver. As for the unit, I have no clue. It really depends on what system they used, and that's a study I'd very much like to read.
As for the results...ohhhh boy, it's a good example of what can happen when you try to quantify talent and rely on models to do so. You can never get results that make complete sense to everyone, because in a way, the quality of a driver (or any sportsman) is subjective. It depends on how you define a "good driver". If you define it purely in terms of success, you're not taking the car into account, nor the circumstances. Few would argue that Nelson Piquet was better than Jim Clark because he had more titles.
Then again, if you only look at a driver's performance against his/her teammate to ascertain how 'good' the car was and use that as an argument, you run the risk of overestimating or underestimating a car's quality because ultimately, if both drivers are close, you can't know if they're both bad or both good.
That doesn't mean I don't find these results immensely satisfying, though
As for the results...ohhhh boy, it's a good example of what can happen when you try to quantify talent and rely on models to do so. You can never get results that make complete sense to everyone, because in a way, the quality of a driver (or any sportsman) is subjective. It depends on how you define a "good driver". If you define it purely in terms of success, you're not taking the car into account, nor the circumstances. Few would argue that Nelson Piquet was better than Jim Clark because he had more titles.
Then again, if you only look at a driver's performance against his/her teammate to ascertain how 'good' the car was and use that as an argument, you run the risk of overestimating or underestimating a car's quality because ultimately, if both drivers are close, you can't know if they're both bad or both good.
That doesn't mean I don't find these results immensely satisfying, though
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
Found the article on the University of Sheffield website, but doesn't shed any more light on it unfortunately: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/gre ... r-1.567358
Just says that they removed the effect of team performance.
Nonetheless, Dr Andrew Bell basically has my dream job.
Just says that they removed the effect of team performance.
Nonetheless, Dr Andrew Bell basically has my dream job.
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
I'm strictly against trying to quantify driver skills or results in the first place into one bestness attribute - this formula does little to make me want to reconsider my stance: it has waaaaay too much bias on performing on a high level throughout one's F1 career. The statistical anomaly of C. Fittipaldi ahead of most of the champions is explained by that his F1 career was cut short by CART, and thus he didn't have time to face decent opposition in F1.
Also dislike that they basically chose to make one particulart exception for Michael Schumacher (probably because they wanted him up high in the table), whilst ignoring all the other comebacks in the history (incl. Lauda's).
Also dislike that they basically chose to make one particulart exception for Michael Schumacher (probably because they wanted him up high in the table), whilst ignoring all the other comebacks in the history (incl. Lauda's).
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
I've seen this before, it's pretty meh. There's nothing in the rankings (or more importantly, the actual paper) to make you think "wow, someone finally got this concept right".
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
UgncreativeUsergname wrote:I've seen this before, it's pretty meh. There's nothing in the rankings (or more importantly, the actual paper) to make you think "wow, someone finally got this concept right".
At face value, I do agree that a number of the other statements in the article are not exactly a revelation, such as the relative importance of the team over the driver.
I do wish that they had been more open about the methods they had used to try and eliminate the team effects, not to mention the fact that, as you say, there is the question about the general quality of the field in any particular year. Do they go into that in more detail in the paper itself?
The other question I would have is how sensitive the model is for drivers who have had a relatively short career with a handful of strong results? Figures like Pryce and Rosier, for example, only competed in around 40 races but managed to pick up a number of podium finishes. Also, have the authors attempted to take into account the circumstances within a team, such as team orders or favourable treatment of a particular driver? I would assume that probably isn't the case.
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
What? Their Top 50 includes Peterson, Reutemann, Pryce, Pace, Watson, Depailler, Alan Jones and Keke Rosberg - but not Niki Lauda and not Mario Andretti?
This is an indicator that, in the study, the effect of good cars was corrected too heavily.
This is an indicator that, in the study, the effect of good cars was corrected too heavily.
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
Just by going off that Top 50, the approach these folks use already doesn't pass some sanity checks. Christian Fittipaldi's high ranking is obviously off as he probably got over-rewarded for his time at Minardi and Footwork/Arrows. Moss being ranked below Hawthorne and Farina is definitely weird. There's also Mansell's ranking out of the top 50, behind Boutsen and really behind Piquet. Was Nelson really that much better when they raced each other at Williams? Also, didn't Mansell beat Patrese by a much larger margin than Boutsen?
The way they correct for team performance looks like it has a number of holes. One could argue Webber should be ranked a bit lower if you look how he did against Vettel at Red Bull throughout their time together post-2010. I also don't remember when Brundle was considered better than Hakkinen, as their time together at McLaren in '94 would show otherwise.
The way they correct for team performance looks like it has a number of holes. One could argue Webber should be ranked a bit lower if you look how he did against Vettel at Red Bull throughout their time together post-2010. I also don't remember when Brundle was considered better than Hakkinen, as their time together at McLaren in '94 would show otherwise.
Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
About time someone recognized Christian Fittipaldi's huge talent!
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Re: The greatest F1 drivers according to Sheffield Uni
I guess what I really want to see is the precise methodology they used, but it seems that to get access to the paper, one must have a subscription to the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, which I'm definitely not paying for...
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