If Senna had lived...

[noisebox]

This is how the next few years may have played out...

1994 - Senna wins the Championship for Williams, Schumacher is second with Hill a distant third. Renault, happy with their success do not supply engines to Benetton in 1995 and continue a customer deal with Ligier.
1995 - Senna wins a 5th Championship and signs for Ferrari in 1996 to fulfill his long term ambition of finnishing his career there. Schumacher leaves Benetton and signs for Williams. Hill leaves Williams, and signs for McLaren where he has a couple of moderately successful years before retiring from F1.
1996 - Schumacher is WC for Williams, Senna wins races for Ferrari and opts for one final tilt at the Championship with Ferrari.
1997 - Senna wins his 5th world championship with Ferrari and retires. Schumacher leaves Williams after Renault announce they will be buying out the Ligier team, and signs to replace Senna at Ferrari.

Side stories - Benetton gradually fall from grace through this period, McLaren build slowly, no WCs for Villeneuve or Hill. I'm sure Senna would've been involved in team ownership somehow - maybe he would've taken over McLaren in the late 90s?

Could've happened?

[Pedro_Diniz]

It's all quite likely, but by the time Imola 1994 had come around, Schumacher had already set up a nice lead in the Championship. Speculate...

[rffp]

If that happened as you predicted, then Schummy's entourage, Braw/Byrne, would have likely gone somewhere else than Ferrari. It could change a lot the early years of the 00 decade.
But I doubt the 1994 title would have gone to Senna, Benetton was too illegal and flying on the track. Schumacher would not have received so many DSQ, which helped a lot Hill's final challenge.

[PayasYouDNPQ]

Depends if he had won at Imola, come second or simply surived the crash.

If he's have won, with Schumacher 2nd, he'd be 16pts behind.
If Schumacher had beaten him at Imola (entirely possible, Benetton had great pit stop strategy that year), the gap would have been 24pts.
If Senna had still crashed but survived, then he's be 30pts down.

16 points would have been a lot easier to catch up over the remaining races than 30.

Would Shumacher have fooled around on the parade lap at Silverstone? Would the Benetton plank have worn too much at Spa? That's too difficult to say. Maybe the second one. So Shumacher would have had 1 DQ, and not been banned from 2 races.

Would Senna be Champion? Maybe, but it would have required beating Schumacher a lot. As for 1995 and beyond, who knows. Maybe Schumacher would have gone to McLaren if Senna had gone to Ferrari.

[noisebox]

My logic for him winning the 1994 championship is that he would've developed that car into a winner quicker than they managed with Hill/Coulthard, and I'm not sure Schumacher would've handled the pressure very well.

[DonTirri]

What you seem to forget is that F1 without Sennas death would have been a completely different sport.

Granted, Roland died that weekend too, but it was Sennas death that started the process that lead into years upon years of drastic rulechanges in the name of safety and reducing speeds.

Had Senna not died, we probably wouldnt have seen Grooved tires, thinner cars, butchered circuits like Hockenheim and Imola itself, "Tilkerings" in general, amongst other things.

And yes, Schummy would have won the 94 championship, had Senna not died, we wouldn'tve had Hill as a no.1 Williams driver, thus the incident in Silverstone would not have happened, no planks on the bottom of the cars, thus the Spa-dq wouldnt have happened etc.

But in 95, Senna would have given more of a fight to Schumi and most likely taken the title. Further than that? Who knows.

[noisebox]

What you seem to forget is that F1 without Sennas death would have been a completely different sport.

Err, that was the point of my post - I'm just speculating as to what might have happened. Arguably Benetton exploited the rule changes better than anyone else (eg the way they modified their airbox), so they may have taken an advantage from them.

[Paul Hayes]

There's a Dutch chap who's writing one of those alternative history novels based on this premise, I believe. It's called "The Encounter Down Under", and he has a website somewhere, although I don't think he'll be troubling the Times bestsellers list.

[dragonsteincole]

What you seem to forget is that F1 without Sennas death would have been a completely different sport.

Err, that was the point of my post - I'm just speculating as to what might have happened. Arguably Benetton exploited the rule changes better than anyone else (eg the way they modified their airbox), so they may have taken an advantage from them.

The point i'd like to draw attention to is without Senna's death, and as much Ratzenberger's, who would it have been? Who would hold that unfortunate position of being the last person to die at a race weekend? Wendlinger the next race at Monaco? Mika Hakkinen at Adelaide 1995?
And you also have to think what Brundle's crash in Melbourne, 1996, Panis - Montreal 1997, Burti - Spa 2001(?) and Kubica - Montreal 2007 would have resulted in too? it's fair to say that the safety changes may of happened eventually without a fatality, but it's also fair to say that i't's doubtful they would have been introduced and developed as fast as they were when they NEEDED to happen.

Leaving that to one side though.

I don't see him winning more than another title in his career. A 4th possibly in 1994, more likely in 1995 once he had a chance to establish himself at Williams, but after that he may have started to fade slowly until his retirement before the turn of the millenium... However, I see the Prost Vs. Senna battles continuing. Seeing Prost purchase and run his own team would be a pretty big incentinve for Senna, a chance to beat his greatest rival once more. Although I have the urge to say it'd probably be gracing the very pages of f1rejects.com, as I doubt past getting one over on Prost he'd be suited to team management. In all fairness I see him having taken up the Keke Rosberg route of becoming a driver manager, perhaps guiding Burti and his nephew into F1 and into 'correct' or better teams.

And finally. Ratzenberger, would probably end up on this website. Staying with Simtek until he was replaced by a pay-driver with a bigger cheque, possibly moving to Minardi or Forti, more likely leaving F1 and having a decent career in sportscars like so many rejects before.

[rffp]

...but after that he may have started to fade slowly until his retirement before the turn of the millenium... .

Somehow, I don't believe I would see Senna "fade slowly". As in some articles here in F1 Rejects is stated, this was a very determined driver. His obstination drove Prost insane and was scary. Either he went out with a bang or he would go out in the top. How many more titles he would have won? That is sheer speculation.

[PayasYouDNPQ]

Roland's death shook the sport quite a bit for the 24 hours after it happened. Wendlinger's accident was before the safety changes were implememted too. I think those accidents and Senna's concerns would have seem many if not all of the safety changes that were actually introduced that year.

It can also be assumed that Williams would have locked out the front row at Silverstone (Senna in front of Hill). After all, what did Hill have in July 1994 that he wouldn't have had with Senna still around? How would Schumacher have dealt with that?

Lastly, Hill was the main Williams test driver. He was very much responsible for the development of the 92 and 93 Williams and was always considered one of the best test drivers and car developers. He was badly missed by the team in 1997. I'd say having Senna around wouldn't have changed much in that respect.

[watka]

Not really that important, but would Coulthard ever have got an F1 drive had he not been promoted after Senna's death? He was tied into a contract with Williams for 1995 and would not have driven for them then, so would his links with McLaren been enough for him to get a seat for 1996? I suppose there were enough teams out there for him, but I wouldn't have imaged him going anywhere better than say Jordan.

[Fitch]

Partially in response to you watka....My take...

Senna has the Accident and the Wheel assembly still smacks him in the Head...the difference the Suspension Rod hits him a half an inch higher..thus, rather then going through his Visor it impacts the actual helmet.....Senna Survives, but with a Concussion. He thus misses Monaco and Coulthard runs the Race....As far as the rest.....Senna increases his crusade for more safety, using his Helmet, with Busted Visor and Suspension Score marks as the Symbol of his demands.....This coupled with Rubens Crash, Ratzenbergers Death, and Wendlinger's accident leads to some safety changes...Wheel Tethers and High Cockpit sides are introduced.......Schumacher wins the 94 WDC....however for 95 Senna and Schumacher duel it out until Adelaide, winner is a Toss up.....

Prost shocks the world when he buys the Ligier Team, and Further Stuns the F1 community when it's announced that Senna will be his #1.......Prost earn their First Constructors Title in 98, and Senna Retires after the 99 Season.

[Hailey]

Never realised before that Senna death had been such a trauma for Barichello.

Btw Coulthard (today elder Formula one pilot in activity) would not start Formula one driving a Williams in 1994.

Considering the fate of many "promising-but-obscure-and-quickly-forgotten" test pilots, would Coulthard ever become a Mc Laren pilot (for example) later ?

Another killer race for Senna would be this crazy Belgium Grand prix of 1998, remember this one ? (maybe a bit late for him, 14th season...)

Oh, and Monaco 1996 was something Senna would have loved, too... probably its 8 th victory there