Predicament Predictions - 2011 Season Preview

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 13 Mar 2011, 06:08

Yeap, it's that time of year again.

In exactly 2 weeks the lights will go green for the start of the Australian Grand Prix and with that comes the Predicament Predictions championship. The rules are pretty much the same as last year except for one new additions so all of it is copied and pasted from last year's preview with some minor changes:

______'s Predictions
2011 _______ Grand Prix:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Pole:
Fastest lap:
First Retirement:
ROTR:
IIDOTR:
DBTMOTR:
Minor League Premiership:
Non-Qualifiers*:

*New additions for this season
The only new addition for this season is the Non-Qualifiers predictions to replace the Teams Minor League Premiership category. It's exactly what it says on the tin.

The points system as always:
Race Winner: 5 points
Other Poduim Getters: 3 points
Other Points Scorers: 2 points
"Right Driver, Wrong Position": 1 point
Pole: 2 points
Fastest Lap: 1 point
First Retirement: 1 point
ROTR: 3 points
IIDOTR: 3 points
DBTMOTR : 2 points
Minor League Premiership: 2 points
Non-Qualifiers*: 1 point per correct prediction
Double Points: x2 the score for that person for that weekend
Penalties:
-2 points for every name changed in predictions AFTER DEADLINE (Exceptions will be made if the driver is rendered unavaliable for the race after the deadline through unforseen circumstances)
-10 points for late submission AFTER DEADLINE

Double points works like this: Each competitior has one double points round which they can use once during the course of the season. To make it more strategic if a competitor wants to use it they must say so with their predictions before the deadline.

Remember that the predictions thread for each grand prix will be created on the TUESDAY AEST before each race and the deadline for each race is the conclusion of Free Practice 2 on the Friday (For Monaco the thread will be opened a day early to account for Thursday Practice).

Any questions? Complaints? Suggestions? If so they go here.
If not see you in Melbourne.

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 13 Mar 2011, 06:08

PREDICAMENT PREDICTIONS STANDINGS

Provisional Standings:
1. RAK: 309 points (1 win, 2 =wins, 1 3rd)*
2. Shinji: 307 points (2 2nds, 1 =3rd)*
3. Shizuka: 302 points (1 =2nd, 1 3rd, 2 =3rds)*
4. TommyKL: 298 points (2 wins, 1 =win)*
5. Row Man Gross Gene: 292 points (1 win, 1 =win, 1 =2nd)*
6. Dr Baker: 285 points (2 wins, 1 3rd, 1 =3rd)*
7. Tealy: 283 points (1 =win, 4 =3rds)*
8. Enforcer: 275 points (2 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)*
9. Wizzie: 273 points (1 =win, 1 2nd, 1 =2nd)*
10. DJ Bereta: 271 points (2 2nds, 1 =2nd)*
11. TMLW: 258 points (1 win, 1 =3rd)*
12. Klon: 255.5 points (1 2nd, 2 =2nds, 1 3rd, 1 =3rd)*
13. QuickYoda41: 255 points (1 win, 1 =3rd)*
14. DanielPT: 252 points (1 2nd, 2 =3rds)*
15. Benetton: 251 points (2 wins, 1 =2nd, 1 3rd)*
16. Ed24: 247 points (1 2nd)*
17. Bleu: 245.5 points (1 =2nd)
18. Phoenix: 242 points (1 =win,)*
19. Jeremy McClean: 238 points (1 win, 2 3rds)*
20. Mario: 234 points (1 =2nd)*
21. East Londoner: 190 points (1 =3rd)*
22. Ranig: 177 points (2 wins)*
23. Priceless: 176 points (1 =2nd)
24. Tristan1117: 173 points (Best Result: 2 =4ths)*
25. Sswishbone: 163 points (1 win, 1 =2nd)*
26. Pieman: 146 points (1 2nd, 1 =2nd, 1 =3rd)*
27. MinardiFan95: 144 points (1 3rd, 1 =3rd)
28. Razta: 135 points (Best Result: 2 =6ths)
29. Aerond: 116 points (Best Result: 2 4ths)*
30. Waris: 115 points (2 2nds)
31. P Friesacher: 103 points (1 =3rd)
32. Jeroen Krautmeir: 99 points (1 2nd)*
33. DOSBoot: 88 points (Best Result: 1 =6th)
34. Valrys: 85 points (1 3rd)
35. RBJ14: 84 points (Best Result: 1 4th)
36. Baby G: 81 points (1 =2nd)*
37. Rocks with Salt: 73 points (1 2nd, 1 3rd)
38. Pablo H: 59 points (Best Result: 2 =6ths)
39. Cynon: 59 points (Best Result: 2 =7ths)
40. IceG: 50 points (Best Result: 1 =6th)
41. AdrianSutil: 47 points (1 win)*
42. DanB: 44 points (Best Result: 1 =9th)
43. Eryx: 43 points (Best Result: 1 =8th)
44. Dartanian: 33.5 points (Best Result: 1 5th)
45. Watka: 31 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)
46. JohnMLTX: 31 points (Best Result: 1 =6th)
47. Debaser: 30 points (1 =3rd)
48. Kostas22: 29 points (Best Result: 1 =8th)
49. RealRacingRoots: 29 points (Best Result: 1 =9th)
50. Eurobrun: 27 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)*
51. SolarCold: 27 points (Best Result: 1 =13th)
52. Warren Hughes: 25 points (Best Result: 1 =8th)
53. BaconLettuceNinja: 22 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)
54. James1978: 22 points (Best Result: 1 9th)
55. SR388: 17 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)
56. Big Sly Doc: 13 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)
57. JP22: 12 points (Best Result: 1 =6th)
58. GroupLotusRenault: 12 points (Best Result: 1 =8th)
59. TheBigJ: 11 points (Best Result: 1 =9th)
60. Mat Classic: 9 points (Best Result: 1 =9th)
61. Manlinth: 8 points (Best Result: 1 =12th)
62. Whatisdeletrazdoing: 7 points (Best Result: 1 14th)
63. FMecha: 6 points (Best Result: 1 =15th)
64. Dinizintheoven: 1 point (Best Result: 1 13th)
65. Jack O'Melley: 0 points (Best Result: 1 16th)
66. Golic 2004: -1 point (Best Result: 1 16th)
67. Instant Mash: -10 points (Best Result: 1 18th)

*Used double points

REJECT OF THE PREDICAMENT PREDICTION ROUND
Australia: Instant Mash (Disqualification and a 10 point penalty is a brilliant way to start the season.)
Malaysia: Mario (Defending Champion earns 22 point penalty for making changes after the deadline which leaves him a lowly 46th in the championship.)
China: Bleu (For being beaten by Krautmeir who had gambled on his predictions)
Turkey: Jeroen Krautmeir (I might as well give it to him whilst I still have the chance)
Spain: TMLW (For languishing at backmarker level)
Monaco: Pieman (For being dead last excluding penalties and doing his championship challenge no good at all)
Canada: Phoenix (For, you guessed it, being dead last after a competitive season thus far)
Europe: Wizzie (Made an error during the calculations of the scores and had to go through it again to fix it)
Britain: Wizzie (More utter uselessness means standings for GB are only done in September)
Germany: Jack O'Melley (Ended up with 0 points without a penalty)
Hungary: Solarcold (A classic example of why hedging bets doesn't work)
Belgium: Dinizintheoven (Ridiculous predictions earns him 1 point and several nominations for post of the year)
Italy: Klon (Finishes behind Kostas who got a 20 point penalty for a late submission)
Singapore: The Server (Crashed during the buildup to the race)
Japan: Enforcer (Penalty sinks championship hopes)
Korea: East Londoner (Hamilton has half-decent run for once and PP Statistician in training suffers as result)
India: Tristan1117 (Uses double points and does precisely sod all with it)
Aba Dabby: Enforcer/Mario (For two people with the calibre that they have, that was simply a shocker)
Brazil: Bleu/Solarcold (Deadline was extended by a day and both of them STILL missed it)

INFINITE IMPROBABLE PREDICTION OF THE ROUND
Australia: Cynon (How the hell did you predict Petrov's first podium?)
Malaysia: The Masked Lapwing (Somehow predicts the position swap between Hamilton and Kobayashi and gains the most out of it as a result.)
China: Enforcer (The first person ever to correctly predict the top 4 of the race in order.)
Turkey: MinardiFan95 (Missed China and immediately got on the dais at Turkey.)
Spain: Enforcer (For somehow predicting that Alonso would win the run down to turn 1)
Monaco: Wizzie (What? The highest I've been in a round up till this point was equal 7th

)
Canada: Jeroen Krautmeir (Mixing it solidly in the midfield)
Europe: Rocks With Salt (The magical powers of the Life W12 spinner haul him to 3rd for the round)
Britain: Benetton (Made the best use of Perez's improbable drive)
Germany: Jeroen Krautmeir (=2nd is incredible considering his dismal season thus far)
Hungary: SSwishbone (Climbs onto the podium despite not having anywhere near as many races as his competitors)
Belgium: Ranig (Takes win in only his fourth race)
Italy: Dr Baker (Posts predictions the week before the race, goes to the Grand Prix and still wins by a massive margin by PP standards)
Singapore: DJ Bereta (Goes one better than Enforcer did in China)
Japan: Ranig (Good Round + Double Points Joker + ?????? = Profit)
Korea: Tealy (Finally delivering after winning inaugural season of PP)
India: Klon (Going all out works through dint of sheer dumb luck)
Aba Dabby: Ed24 (For lack of other real candidates really)
Brazil: Mario (Who would have thought the defending champion would score one podium all year?)

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 13 Mar 2011, 08:09

Oh and before I forget for the first time ever I will allow predictions to be posted through means other than the forum (provided they're before the deadline of course :lol:

). If you can't get through to the forum in time feel free to email them to me at [email protected] or send them to me on Facebook. If the latter option becomes popular I might even create a facebook group with it's sole purpose being just that.

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 13 Mar 2011, 12:38

The qualifiers category is to predict which drivers will qualify for the race, or which ones won't?

P_Friesacher · Post by **P_Friesacher** » 13 Mar 2011, 15:56

If that new "qualifyers" category really is there to list all qualifyers: Wouldn't a non-qualifyers category be easier and shorter to fill in? Also, what do we get the point for? Getting all qualifyers right? Or do we get one point for every correct prediciton (i.e. "d'Ambrosio, Karthikeyan" = 2 points)?

Anyway, I was hoping you would do the predicament predicitions this season again - thanks a lot, I can imagine it's a lot of work!

Aerospeed · Post by **Aerospeed** » 13 Mar 2011, 16:53

P_Friesacher wrote:If that new "qualifyers" category really is there to list all qualifyers: Wouldn't a non-qualifyers category be easier and shorter to fill in? Also, what do we get the point for? Getting all qualifyers right? Or do we get one point for every correct prediciton (i.e. "d'Ambrosio, Karthikeyan" = 2 points)?

Anyway, I was hoping you would do the predicament predicitions this season again - thanks a lot, I can imagine it's a lot of work!

Agreed with that notion. I don't want to mention 23 drivers.

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 13 Mar 2011, 23:57

In response to the critism I've changed it from qualifiers to non-qualifiers. Basically you get a point for every driver that doesn't qualify that you list correctly. You also get one point if you say that everyone will qualify and everyone does qualify

P_Friesacher · Post by **P_Friesacher** » 14 Mar 2011, 00:59

Thank you, and thanks again for organizing the Predicament Predictions! And let me stress again that that "critisism" you are speaking of was mean only in the most constructive way!

And let me also say, that it still says "qualifiers" in your list

Klon · Post by **Klon** » 14 Mar 2011, 09:36

Wizzie wrote:In response to the critism I've changed it from qualifiers to non-qualifiers. Basically you get a point for every driver that doesn't qualify that you list correctly. You also get one point if you say that everyone will qualify and everyone does qualify

Cool, guaranteed points each weekend. :mrgreen:

Myrvold · Post by **Myrvold** » 14 Mar 2011, 13:39

YOu should get minus one point, for each wrong "non-qualify guess".

Ed24 · Post by **Ed24** » 15 Mar 2011, 17:47

Just to clarify, which teams are eligible for the Minor League this year?

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 15 Mar 2011, 18:12

Ed24 wrote:Just to clarify, which teams are eligible for the Minor League this year?

Wizzie wrote:The only new addition for this season is the Non-Qualifiers predictions to replace the Teams Minor League Premiership category.

No Minor League this year.

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 15 Mar 2011, 18:13

Ed24 wrote:Just to clarify, which teams are eligible for the Minor League this year?

Wizzie wrote:*New additions for this season
The only new addition for this season is the Non-Qualifiers predictions to replace the Teams Minor League Premiership category. It's exactly what it says on the tin.

So none.

razta · Post by **razta** » 18 Mar 2011, 06:18

how about Biggest Strategic Balls-up of the Race

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 18 Mar 2011, 09:06

razta wrote:how about Biggest Strategic Balls-up of the Race

Wouldn't that make them eligible for ROTR?

razta · Post by **razta** » 18 Mar 2011, 09:08

dr-baker wrote:
razta wrote:how about Biggest Strategic Balls-up of the Race

Wouldn't that make them eligible for ROTR?

kinda, but more focus on Team decision.. as team orders are now back.. who'd shoot themselves in the foot over team orders.. or we can put it another way
TOoTR Team Orders of The Race? weather that be a good one or bad

Ed24 · Post by **Ed24** » 18 Mar 2011, 10:22

DanielPT wrote:
Ed24 wrote:Just to clarify, which teams are eligible for the Minor League this year?

Wizzie wrote:The only new addition for this season is the Non-Qualifiers predictions to replace the Teams Minor League Premiership category.

No Minor League this year.

From the first post, there is no Teams Minor League, but it looks like there is still a Drivers Minor League.

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 18 Mar 2011, 10:52

Ed24 wrote:
From the first post, there is no Teams Minor League, but it looks like there is still a Drivers Minor League.

That is correct

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 18 Mar 2011, 12:13

Ed24 wrote:
DanielPT wrote:
Ed24 wrote:Just to clarify, which teams are eligible for the Minor League this year?

Wizzie wrote:The only new addition for this season is the Non-Qualifiers predictions to replace the Teams Minor League Premiership category.

No Minor League this year.

From the first post, there is no Teams Minor League, but it looks like there is still a Drivers Minor League.

Sorry, you are right! My bad! So this Drivers Minor League is with the same teams as last year?

Post by **tommykl** » 18 Mar 2011, 12:18

The drivers' Minor League is for rookies only. It has nothing to do with which team they are in.

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 18 Mar 2011, 13:29

tommykl wrote:The drivers' Minor League is for rookies only. It has nothing to do with which team they are in.

Got it! It is fairly obvious now that you spoke of it... :lol:

WIDD · Post by **WIDD** » 18 Mar 2011, 18:17

For the Minor League, would it just be whom we think will finished highest within it or the entire placings? Apologies, totally new to this!

P_Friesacher · Post by **P_Friesacher** » 18 Mar 2011, 18:28

Yes, it's Rookie of the Race (in terms of best position). Don't call it ROTR, though.

WIDD · Post by **WIDD** » 18 Mar 2011, 19:43

P_Friesacher wrote:Yes, it's Rookie of the Race (in terms of best position). Don't call it ROTR, though.

Duly noted 8-)

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 18 Mar 2011, 22:22

The minor league premiership is determined by a combination of Qualifying and Race results. Last year was a 50-50 split between grid results and race results but this year I might change it to give the race more weighting.

watka · Post by **watka** » 19 Mar 2011, 22:02

Can we clarify; are non-qualifiers drivers that aren't allowed to start the race or drivers that are outside the 107% rule? They are not necessarily the same thing.

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 19 Mar 2011, 23:05

watka wrote:Can we clarify; are non-qualifiers drivers that aren't allowed to start the race or drivers that are outside the 107% rule? They are not necessarily the same thing.

Technically, the only drivers that are not allowed to start the race are those who fail to qualify.

P_Friesacher · Post by **P_Friesacher** » 20 Mar 2011, 01:18

But drivers can be outside the 107% and still be allowed to race due to force majeure. Hence (i guess) the question.

Aerospeed · Post by **Aerospeed** » 20 Mar 2011, 14:35

P_Friesacher wrote:But drivers can be outside the 107% and still be allowed to race due to force majeure. Hence (i guess) the question.

Technically they still were outside 107%... so I think technically they still didn't qualify but raced anyways! I think if one is three seconds off 107%, then they're not allowed, but if one is two milliseconds off, then it's up to the marshalls whether or not they should start, but they qualified outside 107%...

and it's one of the better rule changes from Bernie!

Post by **mario** » 20 Mar 2011, 17:07

JeremyMcClean wrote:
P_Friesacher wrote:But drivers can be outside the 107% and still be allowed to race due to force majeure. Hence (i guess) the question.

Technically they still were outside 107%... so I think technically they still didn't qualify but raced anyways! I think if one is three seconds off 107%, then they're not allowed, but if one is two milliseconds off, then it's up to the marshalls whether or not they should start, but they qualified outside 107%...

and it's one of the better rule changes from Bernie!

There is a certain amount of discretion allowed by the stewards, and it mainly revolves around whether the driver has set times during the practise session that shows that they are capable of lapping within 107% of the leaders. In other words, if the driver in question has suffered from problems due to exceptional circumstances, but would otherwise be normally capable of lapping within 107%, then the stewards can sometimes show leniency, and allow a driver onto the grid. Most of the times that has happened, though, have been times when something outside of the control of the driver or team has happened that prevented them from otherwise qualifying normally - normally either mechanical failures or sudden changes in weather conditions.
For the former, there was the example of Sato in the 2002 Australian GP, where he crashed his car during the final practise session, the gearbox of the reserve car broke and by the time he could borrow his team mates car, rain meant he couldn't set a representative time. For the latter, there is the 1999 French GP, where there was variable rainfall over the qualifying session - because the conditions were so variable, the stewards cited "exceptional circumstances", and ignored the 107% rule.

And occasionally they can show leniency even where that condition hasn't been met - Tarso Marques was allowed to race in the 2001 Australian GP, despite never being within 107% of pole during any stage of the race weekend. Then again, Alonso, Bernoldi and Verstappen were also allowed to race, even though all of them were outside of 107% of the pole time, so in that case you suspect that the stewards might have not been all that keen to enforce the rule anyway.

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 20 Mar 2011, 17:44

P_Friesacher wrote:But drivers can be outside the 107% and still be allowed to race due to force majeure. Hence (i guess) the question.

My point is still perfectly valid.

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 03 Apr 2011, 00:01

Standings post-Australia now up along with some extra things.

BabyG · Post by **BabyG** » 03 Apr 2011, 00:11

Oh if only my bank balance looked as healthy as my score, I would be a happy man!

Row Man Gross-Gene · Post by **Row Man Gross-Gene** » 03 Apr 2011, 15:05

I don't wish to appear stupid, nor to reduce my chances in the championship, but I'm only able to discern 12 points from my predictions, yet I'm listed as having 13. I noticed the same thing for another competitor as well. I assume it's not a mistake, so what am I missing? Do we get a point for "taking the grid" so to speak?

BTW, thanks much for running this thing wizzie! It's fun to do and obviously a ton of work for you. You rule!

Edit: for ease I'll post my predictions below.

1. Webber
2. Alonso
3. Vettel
4. Massa
5. Button
6. Hamilton
7. Heidfeld
8. Petrov
9. Schumacher
10. Barrichello

Pole: Vettel
Fastest lap: Webber
First Retirement: Rosberg
ROTR: HRT
IIDOTR: Petrov
DBTMOTR: Maldonado
Minor League Premiership: Perez
Non-Qualifiers: none

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 04 Apr 2011, 01:02

Row Man Gross-Gene wrote:I don't wish to appear stupid, nor to reduce my chances in the championship, but I'm only able to discern 12 points from my predictions, yet I'm listed as having 13. I noticed the same thing for another competitor as well. I assume it's not a mistake, so what am I missing? Do we get a point for "taking the grid" so to speak?

I'll have a look at it. Can you tell me who the other person is?

Tealy · Post by **Tealy** » 04 Apr 2011, 10:03

Wizzie wrote:
Row Man Gross-Gene wrote:I don't wish to appear stupid, nor to reduce my chances in the championship, but I'm only able to discern 12 points from my predictions, yet I'm listed as having 13. I noticed the same thing for another competitor as well. I assume it's not a mistake, so what am I missing? Do we get a point for "taking the grid" so to speak?

I'll have a look at it. Can you tell me who the other person is?

A quick count of your score and I got 12.

7 points for right driver wrong position
2 points for pole
3 for IIDOTR

I think you may have cost yourself a point in the championship there mate :lol:

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 04 Apr 2011, 10:11

Once again it is proven that I cannot do maths if my life depended on it. :lol:

Fixed the error for Row Man Gross Gene. Will look through to find any other errors later.

Row Man Gross-Gene · Post by **Row Man Gross-Gene** » 04 Apr 2011, 13:50

Wizzie wrote:Can you tell me who the other person is?

I'd rather not be that guy. (I.e. the tattle-tale type)

Tealy, I may have cost myself a point, but it's all part of my plan for world domination! Muahahahahahahaha!

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 15 Apr 2011, 13:01

Standings updated to Post-Malaysia

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 15 Apr 2011, 15:07

This is probably the highest-placed I will be all season, thanks to my cunning use of double points early in the season, so I'll post it here for posterity:

Code: Select all

Provisional Standings:
1. Tealy:         32 points (2 =3rds)
2. TommyKL:       31 points (1 win)
3. Dr Baker:      30 points (1 win)*
4. Enforcer:      30 points (1 2nd)
5. Pieman:        30 points (1 =2nd)
6. Debaser:       30 points (1 =3rd)
7. RAK:           28 points (Best Result: 1 =5th)
=8. TMLW:         27 points (1 =3rd)
=8. P Friesacher: 27 points (1 =3rd)
10. Priceless:    27 points (Best Result: 1 4th)