2015 Australian GP Discussion Thread

VirtuaMcPolygon · Post by **VirtuaMcPolygon** » 01 Mar 2015, 21:36

So whats the odd's McLaren don't even qualify for the Aus GP

Or do Qualify but end up using three engines making it to the grid.

Post by **Frogfoot9013** » 01 Mar 2015, 21:57

With the way they're going, I expect them to be propping up the back row of the grid, unless by some miracle Manor make the grid. It would be funny if Manor ended up out-qualifying McLaren should they make it to Albert Park. :lol:

Post by **Bobby Doorknobs** » 01 Mar 2015, 23:02

I'm almost certain McLaren will qualify in Melbourne, even if their running is likely to be limited. Last on the grid? I highly doubt it, even if Manor didn't make it. Sure, they won't be where they would have liked, but I can definitely see them making it out of Q1.

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 02 Mar 2015, 05:52

Remember when McLaren had issues before the season started? 2004? 2011 I think?
They will bounce back. I think Fernando and Jenson will have issues in the race, yes, most likely a double DNF will happen, but they will definitely qualify.

CoopsII · Post by **CoopsII** » 02 Mar 2015, 10:13

Stuff McLaren, if they're no good I have little sympathy.

Anyway else genuinely expecting a decent result from Nasr?

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 02 Mar 2015, 10:30

CoopsII wrote:Stuff McLaren, if they're no good I have little sympathy.

Anyway else genuinely expecting a decent result from Nasr?

One can get some hopes on that. If Sauber managed to bounce back (also thanks to an apparently much improved Ferrari engine) this winter season, then it is not unlikely that they manage to beat both Toro Rossos and a behind schedule Force India (maybe even Lotus). If the McLarens hit trouble as expected then that will leave them a chance of battling for lower points and maybe grab a surprise result.

CoopsII · Post by **CoopsII** » 02 Mar 2015, 10:49

DanielPT wrote:
CoopsII wrote:Stuff McLaren, if they're no good I have little sympathy.

Anyway else genuinely expecting a decent result from Nasr?

One can get some hopes on that. If Sauber managed to bounce back (also thanks to an apparently much improved Ferrari engine) this winter season, then it is not unlikely that they manage to beat both Toro Rossos and a behind schedule Force India (maybe even Lotus). If the McLarens hit trouble as expected then that will leave them a chance of battling for lower points and maybe grab a surprise result.

Yeah, I should perhaps define what I mean by 'decent'. I think after last season and the problems they continue to face a handful of points would be a great start.

FullMetalJack · Post by **FullMetalJack** » 02 Mar 2015, 15:29

Looking forward to FORMULA ONE™ being back, Australia rarely disappoints and I expect 2015 will be no different. I'm just hoping we have 20 cars on the grid.

CoopsII wrote:Anyway else genuinely expecting a decent result from Nasr?

Possibly, although i'm not necessarily hoping for it due to having an avatar bet with Simtek that Ericsson will beat him in the championship this year.

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 02 Mar 2015, 16:57

I think Sauber will nab the IIDOTR in some way if Manor doesn't show up. If they do, I don't think they can get it.

AndreaModa · Post by **AndreaModa** » 02 Mar 2015, 18:34

I remember reading during testing that Nasr was struggling quite badly with the Sauber. It's painfully obvious that they've been glory-running the entire time, which has yielded precisely f*** all. I can't see him doing very well at all. If he can match Ericsson this year, he'll be doing well.

McLaren will of course qualify - by the end of the second Barcelona test they had things quite nicely sorted out.

The question in my mind is how many teams will actually show up in Australia. If the rumours about problems with some of the teams are true, then we could be in for a very odd weekend. If anything, having a grid of 12 cars show up for the season opener would be the best thing for the sport right now.

Either way, it's going to be good!

The Dutch Bear · Post by **The Dutch Bear** » 02 Mar 2015, 19:06

AndreaModa wrote:I remember reading during testing that Nasr was struggling quite badly with the Sauber. It's painfully obvious that they've been glory-running the entire time, which has yielded precisely f*** all. I can't see him doing very well at all. If he can match Ericsson this year, he'll be doing well.

McLaren will of course qualify - by the end of the second Barcelona test they had things quite nicely sorted out.

The question in my mind is how many teams will actually show up in Australia. If the rumours about problems with some of the teams are true, then we could be in for a very odd weekend. If anything, having a grid of 12 cars show up for the season opener would be the best thing for the sport right now.

Either way, it's going to be good!

Well, if you only have 12 cars showing up the race has to be cancelled or made non-championship. You need at least 14 cars to make it a legal race, although pulling into the pits after the warm up lap leaving less than 14 cars is okay as seen in 2005.

James1978 · Post by **James1978** » 02 Mar 2015, 19:44

I'm beginning to wonder if Alonso is going to make it there given the reports about him. McLaren will REALLY be in the doggy-doo if they lose their strongest asset, but this just goes to show that keeping Button was the right decision. Imagine if he'd lost his drive, gone to WEC or something and McLaren had been left with two youngsters if Alonso didn't make it back for Oz (or possibly just as bad, having to take a more experienced driver without a seat like Sutil or Vergne or someone, similar to when Lotus took Heidfeld in 2011) .

Post by **mario** » 02 Mar 2015, 20:31

James1978 wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if Alonso is going to make it there given the reports about him. McLaren will REALLY be in the doggy-doo if they lose their strongest asset, but this just goes to show that keeping Button was the right decision. Imagine if he'd lost his drive, gone to WEC or something and McLaren had been left with two youngsters if Alonso didn't make it back for Oz (or possibly just as bad, having to take a more experienced driver without a seat like Sutil or Vergne or someone, similar to when Lotus took Heidfeld in 2011) .

Well, the way that McLaren approached the final test seems to suggest that they expect Alonso to be fit to race, and some of the comments Magnussen has made recently seem to suggest that he doesn't expect to be called upon in Australia.

Shizuka wrote:Remember when McLaren had issues before the season started? 2004? 2011 I think?
They will bounce back. I think Fernando and Jenson will have issues in the race, yes, most likely a double DNF will happen, but they will definitely qualify.

I don't know about definitely qualify - I think they will, but there are circumstances that could see one driver not qualify. After all, you have to bear in mind that McLaren have only managed to rack up 50km with their 2015 car than Force India have and McLaren's longest runs were only around 13 laps in Barcelona, so there is an outside chance that reliability could prove to be enough of an issue to prevent the team from qualifying.

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 02 Mar 2015, 21:03

mario wrote:
Shizuka wrote:Remember when McLaren had issues before the season started? 2004? 2011 I think?
They will bounce back. I think Fernando and Jenson will have issues in the race, yes, most likely a double DNF will happen, but they will definitely qualify.

I don't know about definitely qualify - I think they will, but there are circumstances that could see one driver not qualify. After all, you have to bear in mind that McLaren have only managed to rack up 50km with their 2015 car than Force India have and McLaren's longest runs were only around 13 laps in Barcelona, so there is an outside chance that reliability could prove to be enough of an issue to prevent the team from qualifying.

Now come on, Mario, really. You of all people. In testing, McLaren more than easily managed to complete some flying laps which were within 107%. They will have 18 minutes in which each driver will have to do just one out lap, a flying lap, and an in lap. What makes you think this is so improbable when they were able to do 13 laps in Barcelona?! OK, so you said it's only an outside chance, but that could just as equally apply to Mercedes - it happened at least twice to Lewis last year - in a year he won the Driver's Title!

TheFlyingCaterham · Post by **TheFlyingCaterham** » 03 Mar 2015, 08:43

On an unrelated note to anything here right now, I will be going to the Grand Prix in Melbourne. I will also record as many of the starts as possible. However, I am not sure whether I'm allowed to upload the starts to youtube or not for copyright reasons. I think the copyright thing is only for the F1 but I'm not entirely sure. Can anyone clear this up for me pls? Thanks

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 03 Mar 2015, 11:08

dr-baker wrote:
mario wrote:
Shizuka wrote:Remember when McLaren had issues before the season started? 2004? 2011 I think?
They will bounce back. I think Fernando and Jenson will have issues in the race, yes, most likely a double DNF will happen, but they will definitely qualify.

I don't know about definitely qualify - I think they will, but there are circumstances that could see one driver not qualify. After all, you have to bear in mind that McLaren have only managed to rack up 50km with their 2015 car than Force India have and McLaren's longest runs were only around 13 laps in Barcelona, so there is an outside chance that reliability could prove to be enough of an issue to prevent the team from qualifying.

Now come on, Mario, really. You of all people. In testing, McLaren more than easily managed to complete some flying laps which were within 107%. They will have 18 minutes in which each driver will have to do just one out lap, a flying lap, and an in lap. What makes you think this is so improbable when they were able to do 13 laps in Barcelona?! OK, so you said it's only an outside chance, but that could just as equally apply to Mercedes - it happened at least twice to Lewis last year - in a year he won the Driver's Title!

One of their cars could break down Saturday Morning preventing it from participating in Qualifying. And FIA might decide to not let it take part in the race.

went · Post by **went** » 03 Mar 2015, 11:18

DanielPT wrote:One of their cars could break down Saturday Morning preventing it from participating in Qualifying. And FIA might decide to not let it take part in the race.

When was the last time FIA didn't allow a car that couldn't do a single lap in Saturday to take part in a race? I think HRT were the last ones, and that was a good time ago. Seriously, we have had several instances of a car crashing before finishing a single Q1 lap and FIA waiving the 107% rule anyway because they knew the car wasn't a rock with wheels. If they manage to do any decent laps at all on Friday, that will be enough. If car A can't run on Saturday but car B does and gets comfortably within 107%, they will both race. The 107% rule is there to stop HRTs being outpaced 5 seconds a lap, so, if you are any better than that, you are in.

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 03 Mar 2015, 11:38

went wrote:
DanielPT wrote:One of their cars could break down Saturday Morning preventing it from participating in Qualifying. And FIA might decide to not let it take part in the race.

When was the last time FIA didn't allow a car that couldn't do a single lap in Saturday to take part in a race? I think HRT were the last ones, and that was a good time ago. Seriously, we have had several instances of a car crashing before finishing a single Q1 lap and FIA waiving the 107% rule anyway because they knew the car wasn't a rock with wheels. If they manage to do any decent laps at all on Friday, that will be enough. If car A can't run on Saturday but car B does and gets comfortably within 107%, they will both race. The 107% rule is there to stop HRTs being outpaced 5 seconds a lap, so, if you are any better than that, you are in.

You forgot how much FIA loves McLaren and Ron Dennis.

But maybe those were the old Max Mosley days were punishing teams and manufacturers was done every six months or so. Anyway, it is not unlikely that McLaren cars hit trouble as soon as Friday if we look how it went in testing. If they manage to show that they are a liability on the track I don't see why they should participate in the race if they miss qualifying.

Post by **Frogfoot9013** » 03 Mar 2015, 11:47

I personally wouldn't be surprised if McLaren were to make the grid and I wouldn't be surprised if they DNQed. Either way, they're gonna do fairly crap.

Post by **Frogfoot9013** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:14

Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

Backmarker · Post by **Backmarker** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:36

Kevin!

Ferrim · Post by **Ferrim** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:41

This saga is getting stranger with every passing day.

I don't remember any driver missing a race three weeks after a concussion...

pi314159 · Post by **pi314159** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:45

Any discussion of McLaren failing to qualify is a massive exaggeration. Although off the pace, they were comfortably within 107% during testing. Their main problem at the moment is lasting a full race distance, but they don't need to worry about making the grid.

Shizuka · Post by **Shizuka** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:47

Looks like McLaren will have issues after all... they seem to aim for that RotR to start off their Honda tenure!

Post by **Frogfoot9013** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:48

Shizuka wrote:Looks like McLaren will have issues after all... they seem to aim for that RotR to start off their Honda tenure!

I think they're aiming for the ROTY award!

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:50

pi314159 wrote:Any discussion of McLaren failing to qualify is a massive exaggeration. Although off the pace, they were comfortably within 107% during testing. Their main problem at the moment is lasting a full race distance, but they don't need to worry about making the grid.

Sure it is. But it is still within the realms of reality. Lotus managed to do it last year, so it is expected for McLaren to also do it. Unless they pull a Life...

Post by **DemocalypseNow** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:53

Frogfoot9013 wrote:Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

Merged with Aus GP thread.

AndreaModa · Post by **AndreaModa** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:57

TheFlyingCaterham wrote:On an unrelated note to anything here right now, I will be going to the Grand Prix in Melbourne. I will also record as many of the starts as possible. However, I am not sure whether I'm allowed to upload the starts to youtube or not for copyright reasons. I think the copyright thing is only for the F1 but I'm not entirely sure. Can anyone clear this up for me pls? Thanks

Ah jeez FOM's Nazi-like purge of all video content is clearly infecting the younger generations.

For reference, I uploaded an (admittedly terrible) recording of the 2010 British GP start, and that is still live. If it gets pulled from YouTube, put it on Vimeo or Dailymotion. And be smart about what you call it - avoid using F1 in the name.

Wallio · Post by **Wallio** » 03 Mar 2015, 12:59

While I do think the Maccas will qualify, I think they will be splitting the last two rows with their livery twins, the FIs. Today's announcement makes me only more confident in that.

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 03 Mar 2015, 13:02

Frogfoot9013 wrote:Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

For Alonso to skip a race, despite it being recommended, just shows the lack of faith the team has for this year. I am now convinced that they don't even count on finishing the race.

JRS · Post by **JRS** » 03 Mar 2015, 14:04

DanielPT wrote:
Frogfoot9013 wrote:Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

For Alonso to skip a race, despite it being recommended, just shows the lack of faith the team has for this year. I am now convinced that they don't even count on finishing the race.

Quite. If there was half a chance that the car would be competitive in Melbourne, there's no way a driver like Alonso is going to skip the race. That he's choosing to seems to indicate that he expects the car to tool around in mid-pack before expiring some time before the halfway point....

dr-baker · Post by **dr-baker** » 03 Mar 2015, 14:27

DanielPT wrote:
Frogfoot9013 wrote:Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

For Alonso to skip a race, despite it being recommended, just shows the lack of faith the team has for this year. I am now convinced that they don't even count on finishing the race.

But they did finish third and fourth (later promoted to a double-podium) with a Button-Magnussen line-up in Melbourne last year. Ended up as their best result of the year mind you. But I doubt that'll happen this time.

DanielPT · Post by **DanielPT** » 03 Mar 2015, 15:09

dr-baker wrote:
DanielPT wrote:
Frogfoot9013 wrote:Just announced by McLaren on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/McLarenF1/status/572729984655204353

For Alonso to skip a race, despite it being recommended, just shows the lack of faith the team has for this year. I am now convinced that they don't even count on finishing the race.

But they did finish third and fourth (later promoted to a double-podium) with a Button-Magnussen line-up in Melbourne last year. Ended up as their best result of the year mind you. But I doubt that'll happen this time.

That was last year. This year, though, things look to go down a different path...

AxelP800 · Post by **AxelP800** » 03 Mar 2015, 15:19

I was eyeing Alexander Rossi for 2nd Manor seat, but he signed to GP2....oh dear, when will his time come???

Merhi? Juncandella? Vergne? Sutil? Gutierrez? VdGarde? Pic? Leimer? Razia? Valsecchi? I wonder......

shinji · Post by **shinji** » 03 Mar 2015, 17:24

With regards to Alonso, I'm glad they're taking every care with his injury. Given the atrocious approach to concussion in my other sporting love, rugby, it's good to see a sport not taking any unnecessary risks. Already one driver too many with a brain injury, no point risking a second concussion to Alonso which is when you get trouble.

Also, a one-race replacement job for McLaren is a pleasing first step for Magnussen now to follow an exact progression of his dad's career, last year not withstanding. So that's pleasing in a reject context.

Post by **Bobby Doorknobs** » 03 Mar 2015, 17:26

shinji wrote:Also, a one-race replacement job for McLaren is a pleasing first step for Magnussen now to follow an exact progression of his dad's career, last year not withstanding. So that's pleasing in a reject context.

And that now means he should be in line for a seat at Haas next year (Haas are a new team, so were Stewart when Jan joined).

Post by **Frogfoot9013** » 03 Mar 2015, 18:43

shinji wrote:With regards to Alonso, I'm glad they're taking every care with his injury. Given the atrocious approach to concussion in my other sporting love, rugby, it's good to see a sport not taking any unnecessary risks. Already one driver too many with a brain injury, no point risking a second concussion to Alonso which is when you get trouble.

Also, a one-race replacement job for McLaren is a pleasing first step for Magnussen now to follow an exact progression of his dad's career, last year not withstanding. So that's pleasing in a reject context.

To fully fulfill that, he'll have to do the odd race in IndyCar as well.

Post by **mario** » 03 Mar 2015, 18:48

dr-baker wrote:
mario wrote:
Shizuka wrote:Remember when McLaren had issues before the season started? 2004? 2011 I think?
They will bounce back. I think Fernando and Jenson will have issues in the race, yes, most likely a double DNF will happen, but they will definitely qualify.

I don't know about definitely qualify - I think they will, but there are circumstances that could see one driver not qualify. After all, you have to bear in mind that McLaren have only managed to rack up 50km with their 2015 car than Force India have and McLaren's longest runs were only around 13 laps in Barcelona, so there is an outside chance that reliability could prove to be enough of an issue to prevent the team from qualifying.

Now come on, Mario, really. You of all people. In testing, McLaren more than easily managed to complete some flying laps which were within 107%. They will have 18 minutes in which each driver will have to do just one out lap, a flying lap, and an in lap. What makes you think this is so improbable when they were able to do 13 laps in Barcelona?! OK, so you said it's only an outside chance, but that could just as equally apply to Mercedes - it happened at least twice to Lewis last year - in a year he won the Driver's Title!

I do think that the chances of such a problem happening are quite low, but theoretically possible. After all, on the first day of the final test session, McLaren had a major hydraulics system failure that put the car out of action for the entire day after just seven laps and having only set a very slow lap time.

Now, the reliability of the car was better in the next few days, but both McLaren and Honda have indicated that the whole drivetrain has not been properly tested in combined power mode, so the team is heading into the practise sessions for the Australian GP with the expectation that there will be issues with their powertrain.

For example, there is potentially a residual issue with the seals for the ERS-K unit. Honda introduced a modified component which was supposed to cure that issue in the second test, but the new component failed in the same way after a limited amount of running too. They have tried introducing a further fix, but it is not clear if this has actually completely resolved the issue given that the team did not do enough running over the next few days due to other issues that cut their testing mileage short.

If the team were to have a repeat of that issue in FP1, it would almost certainly rule them out of FP2 given the time it would require to change the ERS components. Now, I still think it is extremely unlikely that they won't qualify - they'd still have FP3 to prove they can lap within 107%, not to mention qualifying itself - and would therefore be highly surprised if it were to pass, but given the underlying issues I do not think that the possibility, though very remote, can be completely ruled out.

Ferrim wrote:This saga is getting stranger with every passing day.

I don't remember any driver missing a race three weeks after a concussion...

The only scenario I can think of that is close would be Perez having to withdraw from the Canadian GP two weeks after being concussed during the Monaco GP, even though he had passed the FIA's medical checks, after complaining about feeling sick whilst driving the car.

In fact, although Perez did return to the cockpit for the following race, I do recall that he admitted after the season was over that he hadn't really fully recovered from that concussion until a few months later. Although Alonso's accident appears to have been less traumatic, I can see why he might still be feeling the after effects of the accident and be unwilling to race.

Post by **Bobby Doorknobs** » 03 Mar 2015, 18:59

Frogfoot9013 wrote:
shinji wrote:With regards to Alonso, I'm glad they're taking every care with his injury. Given the atrocious approach to concussion in my other sporting love, rugby, it's good to see a sport not taking any unnecessary risks. Already one driver too many with a brain injury, no point risking a second concussion to Alonso which is when you get trouble.

Also, a one-race replacement job for McLaren is a pleasing first step for Magnussen now to follow an exact progression of his dad's career, last year not withstanding. So that's pleasing in a reject context.

To fully fulfill that, he'll have to do the odd race in IndyCar as well.

I think we can forget about him repeating his father's exploits in other series; he'd have to do a full DTM season this year as well, and there are no seats left. Also, forget what I said about Haas, they'd have to defer their entry again until 2017 for it to make sense.

rachel1990 · Post by **rachel1990** » 03 Mar 2015, 19:03

So Can Kevin Match last year's exploits in possibly his only race of the year... no.

I wonder if Honda and mclaren will do what lotus did last year and use the race as a test to get some much needed mileage out of the car. I don't think either car will finish but like Force India it will be good for testing!