Hamilton to Ferrari in 2025?

[IceG]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68163799

and other sources...

Is this nonsense fake news, a bad move for Lewis, or the greatest coup in F1 history?

Thoughts?

[CoopsII]

Maybe, nah and I think you'll find that already occurred at the 2003 Hungarian Grand Prix. If you know, you know...

[sswishbone]

Alonso to Mercedes in 2025, calling it now

[Wallio]

To steal a line from Cody Rhodes: "So, uh, what do you guys wanna talk about?"

With it now (allegedly) confirmed, it really puts that photo of Lewis that Merc put on Instagram last week in perspective. He looked absolutely miserable. Must have done his seat fit and a session in the sim and went "Nope." Also, it shows what Ferrari truly thought about Sainz. They re-sign Charles then boot him out for a 40-something-year-old (who admittedly is a 7-time champion).

This asks far more questions than it answers. Can Ferrari run a team with two equal drivers? Can George carry Merc on his back? Where does Carlos go? Is anyone madder for re-signing than Lando? Just how bloody bad is the 2024 Merc gonna be? And is anyone talking about Andretti?

[James1978]

Mercedes could do a lot worse than Sainz. Would motivate him like hell!

[dr-baker]

And is anyone talking about Andretti?

Why? Is Marco lining himself up for an F1 drive?

[mario]

To steal a line from Cody Rhodes: "So, uh, what do you guys wanna talk about?"

With it now (allegedly) confirmed, it really puts that photo of Lewis that Merc put on Instagram last week in perspective. He looked absolutely miserable. Must have done his seat fit and a session in the sim and went "Nope." Also, it shows what Ferrari truly thought about Sainz. They re-sign Charles then boot him out for a 40-something-year-old (who admittedly is a 7-time champion).

This asks far more questions than it answers. Can Ferrari run a team with two equal drivers? Can George carry Merc on his back? Where does Carlos go? Is anyone madder for re-signing than Lando? Just how bloody bad is the 2024 Merc gonna be? And is anyone talking about Andretti?

If it is true that Hamilton is going to Ferrari, it's possible that the decision was partially driven by personal connections.

John Elkann and Hamilton have reportedly been friends for a number of years, with Elkann seemingly taking a direct role in discussions with Hamilton. Similarly, Hamilton has a long standing partnership with Vasseur - they've known each other since at least 2005, when Hamilton joined Vasseur's Formula 3 team, and it seems that Hamilton has been in touch with Vasseur since then.

If this is going ahead, it does place Mercedes in a bit of a tricky situation now (and it might also explain why some of the teams were particularly keen to get their driver contracts secured as soon as possible, especially over at McLaren).

The only big name driver out of contract in 2025 is Alonso - however, whilst Alonso has remained competitive so far, he would be 44 years old in 2025. Time is not on Alonso's side, and if Mercedes want another driver to replace Hamilton, I expect they'd want a driver for the long term. Sainz might be an option, but there have been claims that Sainz Sr has been a disruptive influence at other teams.

[Pointrox]

[Wallio]

Hell has officially frozen over. Hamilton has been supported by Merc (through their then ownership of Mclaren) since......2003? 2004? Absolute insanity. I love it.

[noiceinmydrink]

The only big name driver out of contract in 2025 is Alonso - however, whilst Alonso has remained competitive so far, he would be 44 years old in 2025. Time is not on Alonso's side, and if Mercedes want another driver to replace Hamilton, I expect they'd want a driver for the long term. Sainz might be an option, but there have been claims that Sainz Sr has been a disruptive influence at other teams.

I don't know, if I was Mercedes I'd defintely put Alonso top of the list and see how Antonelli does - Alonso could keep the seat warm for him if Antonelli is the real deal that people make him out to be.

Watch us discuss this and speculate only for it to end up being Esteban Ocon. Jesus Christ.

[CoopsII]

I know some people dislike Hamilton, and I know some of those people feel that way because of the colour of his skin (it's true, don't pretend it isn't), but this feels like a fantastic way for Hamilton to sign off from F1, and I feel a good chunk of the F1 fans that aren't racist pricks will get behind him for it, for the story, for the romance of the red car. True, it could all result in a stack of DNFs but I choose to believe he'll get that eighth and final WDC.

It was believed Senna wanted to finish his career with Ferrari, I'm sure Hamilton had that in his thought process too.

[mario]

The only big name driver out of contract in 2025 is Alonso - however, whilst Alonso has remained competitive so far, he would be 44 years old in 2025. Time is not on Alonso's side, and if Mercedes want another driver to replace Hamilton, I expect they'd want a driver for the long term. Sainz might be an option, but there have been claims that Sainz Sr has been a disruptive influence at other teams.

I don't know, if I was Mercedes I'd defintely put Alonso top of the list and see how Antonelli does - Alonso could keep the seat warm for him if Antonelli is the real deal that people make him out to be.

Watch us discuss this and speculate only for it to end up being Esteban Ocon. Jesus Christ.

It's going to be a somewhat difficult question to answer - Alonso has talked about possibly staying in F1 for "a few more years", and a seat at a works team would be tempting. On the other hand, he's also said that it'd depend on his performance in 2024, whilst his current partner did say last year that she thought that Alonso would leave the sport when his current contract with Aston Martin expired at the end of 2024.

[Wallio]

I know some people dislike Hamilton, and I know some of those people feel that way because of the colour of his skin (it's true, don't pretend it isn't), but this feels like a fantastic way for Hamilton to sign off from F1, and I feel a good chunk of the F1 fans that aren't racist pricks will get behind him for it, for the story, for the romance of the red car. True, it could all result in a stack of DNFs but I choose to believe he'll get that eighth and final WDC.

It was believed Senna wanted to finish his career with Ferrari, I'm sure Hamilton had that in his thought process too.

I'm not a Hamilton fan at all, but this whole thing has me smiling. If he can win a race with them, much less another title, whoooo boy.

[Row Man Gross-Gene]

Finally a decent silly season! It’s been lame for quite some time. This is exactly what we needed. I can’t wait to read Toto’s recriminations! Absolutely epic! It does have a winding-down feel to it though, I hope he can win some races. And I can’t wait to compare his one-lap pace to Leclerc’s.

[IceG]

Looking at this from Hamilton's point of view:

(1) He is a brilliant driver who has achieved everything to which an an F1 driver could possibly aspire - except win a race/championship in a Ferrari
(2) Ferrari build superb race-winning but edgy F1 cars
(3) Hamilton is highly adaptable and can also out-perform edgy cars

but

(1) Ferrari already have a driver who can out-perform the edginess of their cars
(2) Ferrari's problem over recent years has been as much in strategy and tactical execution as car performance - many a race has been lost due to poor comms or fumbled pitstops
(3) Ferrari have in the past tended to favour the No. 1 vs. No. 2 hierarchy more than other teams for reasons outside pure results, i.e. personality, politics, etc.
(4) Hamilton needs a calm, solid race engineer (i.e. Bono) who provides clear and correct data and instructions

So Hamilton needs to impose the discipline that enables his performances on a team renowned for being a bit unpredictable. He needs to take Bono with him or make sure he gets an equivalent talent on the pit wall.

Ferrari must have asked Vasseur what he needs to win a championship, to which the answer would have been "a proven multi-WDC winner who is not called Alonso".

If this works well, Leclerc (whom I consider the best non-WDC winning driver out there) and Hamilton can push each other and Ferrari to great results. But Ferrari will have to adapt to managing two No. 1 drivers (no favouritism, no stupid team orders, no intra-team factionalism) or there will be red carbon fibre everywhere and Leclerc will be off in a sulk to another top team in 2026 leaving Ferrari with an aging No.1 driver and no back-up plan.

Popcorn futures are the way to go...

[dinizintheoven]

Predicament Predictions for the round of musical chairs:

Carlos Sainz to Sauber in 2025 is about to be a done deal, with instructions to not get too bogged down in it being a bit of an old nag for one year at least, seeing as Audi are taking over and they've won everything they've ever entered. Joe Guanyu gets to stay on for one more season, then Theo Pourchaire gets his drive when Audi don't need the extra Chinese money.

Valtteri Bottas to a prime Hypercar drive in the WEC, and Lance Stroll to an Aston Martin WEC team - these two may or may not be the same entity. Felipe Drugovich to get the seat at Aston he supposedly deserves. Fernando Alonso stays on at Aston until he's 50.

Three hot-take candidates for the empty Merc seat:
(1) Alex Albon, crowbarred away from Williams by the temptation of a more competitive car than he's been used to, irrespective of how well Williams might be improving, if they are;
(2) Esteban Ocon, recalled from Alpine to sow the seeds of disharmony in a team that once had first call on his services;
(3) This is the big one: Pascal Wehrlein, fresh off of stomping all over the Formula E field despite driving for a German rival, but it's not as if Merc have any skin in that game any more.
Not considered: Nyck de Vries. What possessed him to sign for The Team Formerly Known As Minardi, anyway?

[sswishbone]

Apparently Peter Windsor thinks Red Bull have offered Alex Albon a drive for 2025... Make of that what you will, but unexpected Perez to Merc?

[mario]

Apparently Peter Windsor thinks Red Bull have offered Alex Albon a drive for 2025... Make of that what you will, but unexpected Perez to Merc?

Albon to Red Bull is plausible, given Perez's contract expires at the end of this year - I doubt Red Bull will keep him on based on his performances last year, whilst Albon was receiving quite a bit of praise for his performances at Williams last year.

That said, I guess it would also depend on Ricciardo's form this year - the disrupted season due to his injuries made his performances a bit hard to judge last year. Red Bull could be choosing to line Albon up as a potential alternative in case Ricciardo doesn't perform as strongly as hoped, giving themselves at least two different options.

As for Perez - I don't see him as being particularly high on Mercedes's list of options, given that his reputation seems to have taken a fairly sizeable hit in 2023.

[IceG]

When Mercedes ask Toto what he needs to win the WDC/WCC in 2025, he will reply "a multiple WDC who is not called Alonso".

So that's Max to Mercedes in 2025 with Albon and Ricciardo at Red Bull, and Sainz at Aston Martin replacing Alonso or the boss's son.

Meanwhile only Mclaren will have a stable ongoing quality pairing so they will win the WCC/WDC.

[Spectoremg]

This is an incredibly negative and unambitious move by Ferrari who should be moving hell or water to tempt Max.
It's also a glorified pension plan for Hamilton.

[mario]

This is an incredibly negative and unambitious move by Ferrari who should be moving hell or water to tempt Max.
It's also a glorified pension plan for Hamilton.

Why would Max want to move?

There is not the slightest incentive for him to leave a team that is structured to serve him and has Newey at the helm, particularly when it would involve moving to a team which has been mostly centred around the needs of one of his closest rivals. From Max's point of view, he has nothing to gain from such a move - it's others that have to take a risk to catch him, not the other way around.

[Row Man Gross-Gene]

This is an incredibly negative and unambitious move by Ferrari who should be moving hell or water to tempt Max.
It's also a glorified pension plan for Hamilton.

Why would Max want to move?

There is not the slightest incentive for him to leave a team that is structured to serve him and has Newey at the helm, particularly when it would involve moving to a team which has been mostly centred around the needs of one of his closest rivals. From Max's point of view, he has nothing to gain from such a move - it's others that have to take a risk to catch him, not the other way around.

I don't think there is any reason why Max would want to move. Maybe if Ferrari promised to make him a billionaire by the age of 30 or something to that effect? But even then, I don't think it's clear that Max cares that much about that amount of money, he's already wealthy beyond all need or desire.

I think Lewis was the best driver available in 2025 (Max, Charles, Lando etc. are/will be under contract then), so Ferrari probably made the right choice. It sucks for Sainz, but I think he'll land on his feet, maybe with the Stake/future Audi squad.

I don't think it's that bad of a move for Lewis, especially from a racing driver perspective. Ferrari probably had the second-fastest car last season (Merc beat them on the strength of their operational superiority), and it's hard for a racing driver to resist a faster car. It may not always be smart, but drivers often seem to work that way.

But again, I just like it because it's exciting/interesting. It's good for me as a general fan of F1 because if Lewis' better tire-management abilities and still formidable one-lap pace let him start a few more races ahead of Max, we might have some excitement on our hands (especially if Ferrari makes any strides on tire life).

[Wallio]

Apparently Peter Windsor thinks Red Bull have offered Alex Albon a drive for 2025... Make of that what you will, but unexpected Perez to Merc?

Ah yes, the only motorsport "journalist" with less credibility than Jenna Fryer.

Why would Max want to move?

While I agree with you Mario, to play devils advocate, supposedly both Newey and Max have out clauses that can trigger if Horner is no longer at Red Bull. And if....."photogate" ends the way it probably will, all bets could be off.

[Har1MAS1415]

Probably can't come sooner for Lewis, given Mercedes' current form.

[James1978]

Hamilton definitely sounded like he was dreaming of his first Ferrari in his post-race interview!!

[Jarvis]

I wonder how the Ferrari management would be feeling after seeing great performances from Carlos Sainz and Hamilton's struggle so far this season.

[Row Man Gross-Gene]

I wonder how the Ferrari management would be feeling after seeing great performances from Carlos Sainz and Hamilton's struggle so far this season.

I think Hamilton's struggles this season are the car, just look at how George is doing. But it's worth considering even so. Let's see if Carlos stays on Leclerc's level all season. If so, I can see there being some regret, but not a lot. Hamilton is still overall better than anyone but Max in my opinion. And I'd still take Leclerc over Sainz. And I really like Sainz! He's been in the 4-6 position for me for a few years now, and Mercedes or Red Bull would be smart to pick him up from next season.

[mario]

I wonder how the Ferrari management would be feeling after seeing great performances from Carlos Sainz and Hamilton's struggle so far this season.

I think Hamilton's struggles this season are the car, just look at how George is doing. But it's worth considering even so. Let's see if Carlos stays on Leclerc's level all season. If so, I can see there being some regret, but not a lot. Hamilton is still overall better than anyone but Max in my opinion. And I'd still take Leclerc over Sainz. And I really like Sainz! He's been in the 4-6 position for me for a few years now, and Mercedes or Red Bull would be smart to pick him up from next season.

It's a small sample pool to pick from, and it's a rather messy data set too (since the race in Saudi Arabia was skewed by the safety car and strategy decisions by Mercedes, and there was the DNF in Australia). There's also an argument that, in Bahrain at least, Leclerc was hampered for at least part of the race by a brake cooling issue, so we didn't necessarily see his maximum potential.

It also depends on whether those drivers hold that form over the season too - we've seen a few seasons where Hamilton wasn't immediately fast out of the blocks, but showed stronger form as the season went on, and equally we have to see if Sainz can keep his performances at a consistent high level throughout the season.