Can Red Bull do it in dry weather conditions

[CarlosFerreira]

It's the day after Red Bull's 1-2 in China, under a lot of rain throughout the entire race. It was the best car out there, and Buemi's performance helped demonstrate so. In the wet in Malaysia, Webber had already demonstrated the car was good in these conditions. And all without the diffuser thingy or KERS! So, here's the question:

- Can Red Bull fight Brawn, Toyota and Rosberg in dry weather come next week, in Bahrain?

I suppose not. Maybe when Adrian Newey finishes that new diffuser he's working on? I expect them to be outclassed, unfortunately. It's a shame; prettiest car out there by a country mile.

Opinions?

[midgrid]

I agree with what you've written. It's interesting how the least competitive cars without the double-decker diffuser have been able to incorporate it into their chassis first, whereas Red Bull and Toro Rosso, the most competitive teams (RBR at least), will almost certainly be the last to do so.

I'm looking forward to reading some technical analysis this week of why the RB5/STR4 is so quick in wet conditions.

[runningboots]

In theory, any team worth it's salt will have working on a new diffuser even before the hearing/result. However, with no testing, it is all about simulators and data. If Red Bull get it right, then they could take over Brawn.

Will Brawn then buy the Mercedes KERS system, or is that McLaren's intellectual property ?

[midgrid]

The difficulty for Red Bull is that its rear end package seems to be the most complex to redesign, so it will take several races for a new one to be introduced, even if Newey has already been working on a new diffuser for a while now.

[Captain Hammer]

And there's no guarantees they'll get it right first time. I doubt they're going to go through twenty incarnations before settling on one, but there's always the potential for a design to simply not work. After all, look at Toyota's triple-decker and how well that went for them. Likewise Alonso's; I'd be very interested to know how that car would have performed while fuelled to the same level as the Brawns.

[TomWazzleshaw]

In theory, any team worth it's salt will have working on a new diffuser even before the hearing/result. However, with no testing, it is all about simulators and data. If Red Bull get it right, then they could take over Brawn.

Will Brawn then buy the Mercedes KERS system, or is that McLaren's intellectual property ?

Well if Brawn does use the Mercedes KERS system Force India would have to use it as well. And that would be a bad thing for Force India's current rivals Ferrari as the Mercedes KERS system is easily the best avaliable right now

[noisebox]

I think they may do well at circuits where a high downforce set up is required and traction is critical, so I expect them to be good at Monaco and Hungary, and maybe even Singapore and Valencia. It's very difficult to tell where they are on a 'normal' dry track, though parctice in China suggests they are 2nd only to Brawn.

I expect Brawn to actually gain performance relative to the others at the start of the European races - don't forget how late their car was out. They have the most to gain from upgrades.

I think Red Bull maybe able to shine when conditions suit, but Brawn is still the best all round package. Red Bull have a better driver in Vettel than either Button or Barrichello.

[TomWazzleshaw]

I think they may do well at circuits where a high downforce set up is required and traction is critical, so I expect them to be good at Monaco and Hungary, and maybe even Singapore and Valencia. It's very difficult to tell where they are on a 'normal' dry track, though parctice in China suggests they are 2nd only to Brawn.

I expect Brawn to actually gain performance relative to the others at the start of the European races - don't forget how late their car was out. They have the most to gain from upgrades.

I think Red Bull maybe able to shine when conditions suit, but Brawn is still the best all round package. Red Bull have a better driver in Vettel than either Button or Barrichello.

I have to agree with you there but the problem both Red Bull and Brawn might have later in the season is Reliablitiy. Vettel did so little laps in Qualifying partially because something in the rear of the car had overheated and we all know the Barrichello gearbox issue at Sepang.

Brawn in theory can benefit the most from car updates but where are the resources to develop. I know Branson would chip quite a bit in but is he really going to pay enough dough for significant upgrades for the Brawn? And if he does what if the upgrads end up being more like downgrades?

[Captain Hammer]

It's obvious Brawn have a pretty thorough understanding of their car. Of all the teams, they've spent the most time in development, which no doubt saw them come up with plenty of potential upgrades which they could test to see the effects. After all, look at their brake calipers: were everyone else run theirs on the side of the wheel, Brawn's are on the bottom, which mean's the car's centre of gravity is lower, increasing the downforce. I think too much emphasis was placed on the importance of the diffusers: Brawn clearly have a few optional extras here and there that don't do much on their own, but combined have a significant effect.

[noisebox]

Brawn in theory can benefit the most from car updates but where are the resources to develop. I know Branson would chip quite a bit in but is he really going to pay enough dough for significant upgrades for the Brawn? And if he does what if the upgrads end up being more like downgrades?

According to Ross Brawn they have funding secured already to complete 2009 and I think Mercedes agreed an engine supply with that condition attached. Also Flav said they have a pot of something like $130m from Honda. Then they will be getting the travel and TV money and whatever Branson commits, so I think this season they will be OK.

Their challenge will be next year, no way they can match the resources Honda put into this car. Realistically it's all or nothing for them this year, I can't see them being a force from 2010 onwards.

[Captain Hammer]

They're challenge will be next year, no way they can match the resources Honda put into this car. Realistically it's all or nothing for them this year, I can't see them being a force from 2010 onwards.

If they have a good car, they will be. And if they have a good season this year, sponsors will be falling over themselves to get their names on the Brawn BGP-002, and they'll be willing to pay top dollar to do it.

[TomWazzleshaw]

And if worse comes to worse they could always replace Barrichello with a pay driver. But the only problem with that is what cost to performance from that driver will be.

[noisebox]

And if worse comes to worse they could always replace Barrichello with a pay driver. But the only problem with that is what cost to performance from that driver will be.

Hamilton, Alonso, Raikkonen, Massa, Kubica would all pay to be in that car at the moment!

[Chilled Phill]

Interesting question.

Although, even as a Williams fan myself, I don't think Rosberg is up to the race pace set by Toyota and Brawn just yet. Very fast on a single lap but, frustratingly, slow (not helped by poor pit calls...) in comparison to the Brawns during the race. Certainly worth a shot at a top four finish in the Constructors' Championship this year, but only if the source of the free engine supply (Nakajima) gets his act together which doesn't look likely to be happening soon...

Anyway, back to the topic: If Vettel's pace in Australia was anything to go by then yes, with a little luck, Red Bull can pull of a dry win although there are plenty of races left which have a habit of raining (Britain, Belgium, Singapore(?) and Japan to name a few) so there's a window of opportunity for RBR there if China was anything to go by...