Predicament Predictions - 2010 Bahrain Grand Prix

TomWazzleshaw · Post by **TomWazzleshaw** » 07 Mar 2010, 10:12

It's back!

The F1 Rejects Predicament Predictions championship is ready to go for round 1 of the championship.
For the new participants the Rules and Standings are here. Under most circumstances I would leave it until Tuesday to open it but I opened it now because I need to explain how the DBTMOTR award will work:

When the DBTMOTR award was included for this season how it would be awarded created alot of controversy and discussion. Therefore I have come up with this hypothetical model to show how it will work.

Qualifying for Bahrain and the end of Q1 looks like this:
1. F. Alonso (Ferrari): 1:52.317
2. M. Schumacher (Mercedes): +0.105
3. S. Vettel (Red Bull): +0.197
4. J. Button (McLaren): +0.301
5. M. Webber (Red Bull): +0.377 (+2)
6. R. Barrichello (Williams): +0.462
7. L. Hamilton (McLaren): +0.463 (+3)
8. N. Rosberg (Mercedes): +0.489 (+6)
9. R. Kubica (Renault): +0.534
10. K. Kobayashi (Sauber): +0.550
11. F. Massa (Ferrari): +0.557 (+10)
12. N. Hulkenberg (Williams): +0.681 (+6)
13. P. De La Rosa (Sauber): +0.779 (+3)
14. A. Sutil (The Force): +0.817
15. V. Liuzzi (The Force): +0.826 (+1)
16. S. Buemi (Toro Rosso): +0.904
17. V. Petrov (Renualt): +0.941 (+8)
18. J. Alguersuari (Toro Rosso): +0.997 (+2)
19. J. Trulli (Fondmetal): +2.615
20. T. Glock (Simtek): +2.986
21. L. Di Grassi (Simtek): +3.381 (+1)
22. H. Kovaleinen (Fondmetal): +3.716 (+3)
23. B. Senna (Dallara): +4.713
24. K. Chandok (Dallara): +5.514 (+1)

Based on Q1 Massa is the most Deadbeat driver as he is so far behind Alonso. Since Q2 and Q3 cannot give accurate comparisons if one of the drivers is eliminated in Q1 (In this case Alguersuari) they are not counted.

In the Race only the finishing order is counted for the award. Again hypothetical finishing order:
1. M. Webber (Red Bull): 1:37:21.301
2. J. Button (McLaren): +9.312
3. L. Hamilton (McLaren): +15.851 (+1)
4. S. Vettel (Red Bull): +17.199 (+3)
5. N. Rosberg (Mercedes): +21.526
6. K. Kobayashi (Sauber): +28.731
7. R. Barrichello (Williams): +31.041
8. R. Kubica (Renault): +45.780
9. F. Alonso (Ferrari): +57.214
10. F. Massa (Ferrari): +59.812 (+1)
11. N. Hulkenberg (Williams): +1:00.905 (+4)
12. P. De La Rosa (Sauber): +1:04.742 (+6)
13. S. Buemi (Toro Rosso): +1:15.687
14. V. Pertov (Renault): +1:16.994 (+6)
15. A. Sutil (The Force):+1:19.591
16. J. Alguersuari (Toro Rosso): +1.32.412 (+3)
17. J. Trulli (Fondmetal): +1 Lap
18. H. Kovaleinen (Fondmetal): +2 laps (+1)
19. T. Glock (Simtek): +2 laps
20. V. Liuzzi (The Force): 46 laps complete (Out of Fuel) (+5)
21. L. Di Grassi (Simtek): 32 laps complete (Engine Failure) (+2)
22. M. Schumacher (Mercedes): 21 laps complete (Crashed at Pit Entry :lol:

) (+17)
23. B. Senna (Dallara): 15 laps complete (Hydraulics Failure)
24. K. Chandok (Dallara): 0 laps complete (Electircal Failure) (+1)

Now with the race complete lets get a team by team analysis and find out who is the DBTMOTR
McLaren: Hamilton (+4)
Mercedes: Schumacher (+11)
Red Bull: Vettel (+1)
Ferrari: Massa (+11)
Williams: Hulkenberg (+10)
Renault: Petrov (+14)
The Force: Liuzzi (+6)*
Toro Rosso: Alguersuari (+5)
Fondmetal: Kovaleinen (+4)
Simtek: Di Grassi (+3)*
Sauber: De La Rosa (+9)
Dallara: Chandok (+2)*
*Indicates a force outside Driver's control played a part
In this situation Petrov would be a clear winner with Massa second and Schumacher 3rd (Massa ahead simply because Schumacher was ahead of Rosberg in Qualifying while Massa didn't finish or end Q1 ahead of Alonso)

Now we got that out of the way somewhat let's move onto the first predictions of the season:
Wizzie's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Schumacher
4. Rosberg
5. Kobayashi
6. Webber
7. Massa
8. Vettel
9. Button
10. Barrichello

Pole: Alonso
Fastest lap: Rosberg
First Retirement: Di Grassi
ROTR: De La Rosa
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTMOTR: Petrov

MinardiFan95 · Post by **MinardiFan95** » 07 Mar 2010, 10:49

MinardiFan95's predictions for the 2010 Bahrain GP
1. Alonso
2. Webber
3. Hamilton
4. Massa
5. Rosberg
6. Vettel
7. Kobayashi
8. Button
9. Schumacher
10. Sutil

Pole: Massa
Fastest Lap: Alonso
First Retirement: Chandhok
ROTR: Stefan GP & USF1
IIDOTR: BMW Sauber - Ferrari
DBTMOTR: Petrov

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 07 Mar 2010, 11:40

Phoenix's predictions for the 2010 Bahrain GP:
1-Alonso
2-Hamilton
3-Rosberg
4-Schumacher
5-Massa
6-Button
7-Kobayashi
8-Sutil
9-Hulkenberg
10-De la Rosa
Pole position-Alonso
Fastest lap-Hamilton
First retirement-Di Grassi
Reject of the Race-Hispania
Infinite Improbability Drive of the Race-Kubica
Dead Beat Team Mate of the Race-Liuzzi

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 07 Mar 2010, 11:51

I see what you're doing there with the DBTMOTR, Wizzie. Like it!

Carlos' predictions for the 2010 Bahrain GP:
1-Alonso
2-Hamilton
3-Rosberg
4-Button
5-Schumacher
6-Webber
7-Vettel
8-Kobayashi
9-Hulkenberg
10-Barrichello

Pole position-Alonso
Fastest lap-Rosberg
First retirement-Senna
Reject of the Race-Massa
Infinite Improbability Drive of the Race-Rosberg
Dead Beat Team Mate of the Race-de la Rosa
Minor League Premiership: Lotus, Kobayashi

Klon · Post by **Klon** » 07 Mar 2010, 12:06

Klon's predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Barrichello
4. Massa
5. Schumacher
6. De La Rosa
7. Webber
8. Hülkenberg
9. Button
10. Glock

Pole: Vettel
Fastest lap: Schumacher
First Retirement: Sutil, Liuzzi, Kubica (start crash)
ROTR: Renault
IIDOTR: Glock
DBTMOTR: Rosberg

RAK · Post by **RAK** » 07 Mar 2010, 12:29

RAK's Predictions:
1) Alonso
2) Hamilton
3) Vettel
4) Massa
5) Schumacher
6) Kobayashi
7) Webber
8) Barrichello
9) Rosberg
10) De La Rosa

Pole Position: Hamilton
Fastest Lap: Vettel
First Retirement: Chandhok
ROTR: FIA Selection Process - Say what you might, but I reckon Prodrive or Lola would have at least fared better than US F1.
IIDOTR: Sauber - back to an outside chance of the championship.
DBTMOTR: Petrov

Post by **DemocalypseNow** » 07 Mar 2010, 12:34

1. Kobayashi
2. De la Rosa
3. Schumacher
4. Rosberg
5. Alonso
6. Webber
7. Hamilton
8. Massa
9. Buemi
10. Sutil

Pole: Alonso
Fastest lap: Vettel
First Retirement: Glock
ROTR: Button
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTMOTR: Button

Ross Prawn · Post by **Ross Prawn** » 07 Mar 2010, 12:36

Ross Prawn's Predictions:

1)Alonso
2) Massa
3) Hamilton
4) Kobayashi
5) Schumacher
6) Vettel
7) Webber
8) Hukenberg
9) Rosberg
10) Button

Pole Position: Massa
Fastest Lap: Webber
First Retirement: Kovalienen
ROTR:Trulli
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTMOTR: Barrichelo

tristan1117 · Post by **tristan1117** » 07 Mar 2010, 14:05

tristan1117's Predictions

1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Hamilton
4. Schumacher
5. Webber
6. Rosberg
7. Barrichello
8. Kobayashi
9. Button
10. Kubica

Pole Position: Alonso
Fastest Lap: Alonso
ROTR: Button
IIDOTR: Barrichello
DBTMOTR: Button

DonTirri · Post by **DonTirri** » 07 Mar 2010, 14:27

DonTirri'ss Predictions

1. Vettel
2. Hamilton
3. Rosberg
4. Alonso
5. Kobayashi
6. Schumacher
7. Massa
8. Button
9. Webber
10. Kubica

Pole Position: Vettel
Fastest Lap: Alonso
ROTR: Barrichello
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTMOTR: De La Rosa

Popi_Larrauri · Post by **Popi_Larrauri** » 07 Mar 2010, 16:09

Popi's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Hamilton
4. Massa
5. Webber
6. Rosberg
7. Kobayashi
8. Button
9. Schumacher
10. Barrichello

Pole: Alonso
Fastest lap: Hamilton
First Retirement: Chandook (Hydraulics)
ROTR: HRT
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTMOTR: Petrov

FOOFOTR: (First Out Of Fuel Of The Race): Liuzzi

kowalski · Post by **kowalski** » 07 Mar 2010, 17:12

Kowalski's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Alonso
2. Hamilton
3. Vettel
4. Webber
5. Massa
6. Button
7. Shumacher
8. Kobayashi
9. Kubica
10. Hulkenburg

Pole: Hamilton
Fastest lap: Shumacher
First Retirement: Chandhok (Senna takes him off trying one up the inside on the first corner... New nose & ROTR for Senna...)
ROTR: Senna
IIDOTR: Lotus
DBTMOTR: Petrov

Check out the fact that De La Rosa looks like he should be working as a teacher rather than an F1 driver:

http://www.formula1.com/teams_and_drivers/drivers/

Waris · Post by **Waris** » 07 Mar 2010, 19:52

I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 07 Mar 2010, 20:20

Waris wrote:I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

You lose points for that, remember. You'll end up like Bleu (I think it was) last year, on negative points.

Waris · Post by **Waris** » 07 Mar 2010, 20:26

CarlosFerreira wrote:
Waris wrote:I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

You lose points for that, remember. You'll end up like Bleu (I think it was) last year, on negative points.

Bleh. At least I could be a Predicament Predictions reject.

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 07 Mar 2010, 20:28

Waris wrote:
CarlosFerreira wrote:
Waris wrote:I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

You lose points for that, remember. You'll end up like Bleu (I think it was) last year, on negative points.

Bleh. At least I could be a Predicament Predictions reject.

If memory serves, Bleu signed up as "PPPP: Proper Pathetic Predicaments Prediction". Time to sign up for that club?

watka · Post by **watka** » 07 Mar 2010, 20:29

Watka's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Massa
4. Schumacher
5. Webber
6. Kobayashi
7. Button
8. Rosberg
9. Vettel
10. Hulkenberg

Pole: Webber
Fastest lap: Alonso
First Retirement: Chandhok
ROTR: Hispania Racing Team
IIDOTR: Sauber
DBTMOTR: Button

Warren Hughes · Post by **Warren Hughes** » 07 Mar 2010, 21:27

CarlosFerreira wrote:If memory serves, Bleu signed up as "PPPP: Proper Pathetic Predicaments Prediction". Time to sign up for that club?

If my memory serves, I don't think it was Bleu, it might have been MBF. For what it's worth, I got negative points one week as well.

My predictions are on their way in the coming days.

Post by **mario** » 07 Mar 2010, 21:28

CarlosFerreira wrote:
Waris wrote:I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

You lose points for that, remember. You'll end up like Bleu (I think it was) last year, on negative points.

So, on that note, when would be the latest that you could leave it until making a prediction?

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 07 Mar 2010, 21:33

Warren Hughes wrote:
CarlosFerreira wrote:If memory serves, Bleu signed up as "PPPP: Proper Pathetic Predicaments Prediction". Time to sign up for that club?

If my memory serves, I don't think it was Bleu, it might have been MBF. For what it's worth, I got negative points one week as well.

Ah, that's right! It was Many Blue Flags.

mario wrote:
CarlosFerreira wrote:
Waris wrote:I refrain from making any predictions until at least after first practice.

You lose points for that, remember. You'll end up like Bleu (I think it was) last year, on negative points.

So, on that note, when would be the latest that you could leave it until making a prediction?

I read Wizzie's link above and found this:

Wizzie wrote:Remember that the predictions thread for each grand prix will be created on the TUESDAY AEST before each race and the deadline for each race is the conclusion of Free Practice 2 on the Friday (For Monaco the thread will be opened a day early to account for Thursday Practice).

I think this means I was wrong, and you only get points taken away if you make your PP after FP2. :oops:

Enforcer · Post by **Enforcer** » 07 Mar 2010, 23:31

1) Alonso
2) Vettel
3) Schumacher
4) Hamilton
5) Massa
6) Webber
7) Button
8) Barrichello
9) Kubica
10) Rosberg

Pole: Alonso
Fastest lap: Schumacher
First Retirement: It'll be one of the untested HRTs, but to be different, I'm going to say Senna instead of Chandhok.
ROTR: Hispania Racing Team (only because USF1 can't really count as ROTR)
IIDOTR: Kubica - that Renault will NOT belong in 9th place
DBTMOTR: Rosberg

Minor League: Kobayashi, Virgin

Pieman · Post by **Pieman** » 08 Mar 2010, 00:22

Pieman's predictions for the 2010 Bahrain GP
1. Webber
2. Hamilton
3. Massa
4. Schumacher
5. Vettel
6. de la Rosa
7. Alonso
8. Sutil
9. Rosberg
10. Hulkenberg

Pole: Webber
Fastest Lap: Massa
First Retirement: Button
ROTR: Kobayashi
IIDOTR: Rosberg
DBTMOTR: Liuzzi

Sullivangate · Post by **Sullivangate** » 08 Mar 2010, 02:55

Sullivangate's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Alonso
2. Vettel
3. Hamilton
4. Massa
5. Rosberg
6. Kobayashi
7. Webber
8. Button
9*. Barrichello
10*. Sutil

Pole: Alonso.
Fastest lap: Vettel
First Retirement: Chandok
ROTR: FIA.
IIDOTR: Sutil.
DBTMOTR: De La Rosa

razta · Post by **razta** » 08 Mar 2010, 04:36

Razta's Predictions
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix:
1. Schumi
2. Vettel
3. Alonso
4. Massa
5. Rosberg
6. Kobayashi
7. Webber
8. Button
9*. Barrichello
10*. Sutil

Pole: Alonso.
Fastest lap: Schumi
First Retirement: Hamilton
ROTR: Virgin.
IIDOTR: Sutil.
DBTMOTR: Liuzzi

Cynon · Post by **Cynon** » 08 Mar 2010, 07:23

1. Webber
2. Alonso
3. Rosberg
4. Button
5. Vettel
6. Massa
7. Kobayashi
8. Schumacher
9. Petrov
10. Hamilton

Pole: Hamilton
Fastest Lap: Alonso
First Retirement: Chandok
ROTR: Kubica
IIDOTR: Petrov
DBTMOTR: Kubica

Bleu · Post by **Bleu** » 08 Mar 2010, 07:39

1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Hamilton
4. Button
5. Rosberg
6. Schumacher
7. Webber
8. Kobayashi
9. Hülkenberg
10. Kubica
Pole: Hamilton
FL: Hamilton
1st retirement: Buemi
ROTR: New loop of the circuit
IIDOTR: HRT (for being best of three new teams)
DBTMOTR: de la Rosa

TeamTipper · Post by **TeamTipper** » 08 Mar 2010, 07:50

Teamtippers prediction for Bahrain GP:

1. Button
2. Webber
3. Vettel
4. Schumacher
5. Kobayashi
6. Barrichello
7. Rosberg
8. Hamilton
9. Massa
10. De La Rossa
Pole: Webber
FL: Schumacher
ROTR: Alonso (crashing while trying to hold on to the lead)
IIDOTR: HRT (for being best of three new teams)
DBTMOTR: Mercedes GP

thehemogoblin · Post by **thehemogoblin** » 08 Mar 2010, 08:00

1. Alonso
2. Massa
3. Hamilton
4. Vettel
5. Button
6. Schumacher
7. Webber
8. Barrichello
9. Kobayashi
10. Sutil

Pole: Massa
Fast lap: Hamilton
First retirement: di Grassi
ROTR: de la Rosa
IIDOTR: Sutil
DBTMOTR: de la Rosa

Tealy · Post by **Tealy** » 08 Mar 2010, 10:50

Wow plenty of predicions this race!

Tealy's Predicions
1. Hamilton
2. Alonso
3. Massa
4. Vettel
5. Button
6. Webber
7. Rosberg
8. Schumacher
9. Sutil
10. Barrichello

Pole: Hamilton
Fastest lap: Alonso
First retirement: Di Grassi
ROTR: Sutil
IIDOTR: Massa
DBTMOTR: Chandhok

shinji · Post by **shinji** » 08 Mar 2010, 20:02

shinji's Predictions
Bahrain GP

1. Alonso
2. Hamilton
3. Vettel
4. Button
5. Massa
6. Schumacher
7. Barrichello
8. Kobayashi
9. Webber
10. Sutil

Pole - Vettel
Fastest Lap - Schumacher
First Retirement - Kovalainen
ROTR - Di Grassi
IIDOTY - Barrichello
DBTMOTR - Rosberg

Dj_bereta · Post by **Dj_bereta** » 08 Mar 2010, 21:10

1-Massa
2-Hamilton
3-Vettel
4-Webber
5-Rosberg
6-Button
7-Barrichello
8-Sutil
9-Luizzi
10-Hulkenberg

Pole: Massa
Fastest Lap: Hamilton
First Retirement: Alonso (crash with schumacher)
ROTR: Alonso (reckless move against schumacher)
IIDOTY: Trulli
DBTMOTR: Chandook

rffp · Post by **rffp** » 09 Mar 2010, 07:12

1-Vettel
2-Webber
3-Hamilton
4-Massa
5-Alonso
6-Kobayashi
7-Schumacher
8-Button
9-Kubica
10-Barrichello

Pole: Vettel
Fastest Lap: Hamilton
First Retirement: Chandhok
ROTR: FIA's selection of the new teams
IIDOTR: Kobayashi
DBTOR: Petrov

Captain Hammer · Post by **Captain Hammer** » 09 Mar 2010, 07:50

1st - Lewis Hamilton
2nd - Sebastian Vettel
3rd - Michael Schumacher
4th - Jenson Button
5th - Felipe Massa
6th - Robert Kubica
7th - Mark Webber
8th - Fernando Alonso
9th - Nico Rosberg
10th - Vitaly Petrov

Pole Position: Felipe Massa
Fastest Lap: Jenson Button
First Retirement: Pedro de la Rosa
Reject of the Race: USF1
Infinite Improbability: Vitaly Petrov
Deadbeat Team-Mate: Vitantonio Liuzzi
Minor League Premiership: Virgin, Vitaly Petrov

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 09 Mar 2010, 10:07

Captain Hammer wrote:5th - Felipe Massa
...
8th - Fernando Alonso

Do you reckon Ferrari are losing it, or that their pace in testing was a fake?

Captain Hammer · Post by **Captain Hammer** » 09 Mar 2010, 10:50

CarlosFerreira wrote:Do you reckon Ferrari are losing it, or that their pace in testing was a fake?

I reckon that Ferrari's assaults on the new teams are indicative of problems in the team. They're feeling threatened; why else would they attack new teams whe they won't even be directly racing them?

Also, I have it in for Spain. I'm sick of the way they assume the only reason anyone will watch the races is to see who comes second.

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 09 Mar 2010, 11:06

Captain Hammer wrote:I reckon that Ferrari's assaults on the new teams are indicative of problems in the team. They're feeling threatened; why else would they attack new teams whe they won't even be directly racing them?

Fair enough.

Captain Hammer wrote:Also, I have it in for Spain. I'm sick of the way they assume the only reason anyone will watch the races is to see who comes second.

Phoenix · Post by **Phoenix** » 09 Mar 2010, 14:53

Captain Hammer wrote:Also, I have it in for Spain. I'm sick of the way they assume the only reason anyone will watch the races is to see who comes second.

If we take this sentence, I assume most Brits will only see the races this season to see who comes 3rd.

Post by **mario** » 09 Mar 2010, 16:09

Just seen this article in Autosport: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/81937
So, judging by the fact that Bridgestone suggests that Sauber look to be the best at preserving their tyres, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sauber doing reasonably well in race trim. At the very least, the suggestion by Bridgestone that Sauber could get away with running a softer compound in Q3, and still be able to run a race stint on that tyre without the times dropping off too badly, means that they could give the big 4 teams a bit of trouble in qualifying as well.
So, based on that, I reckon that a points finish for Sauber at Bahrein is on the cards, barring mechanical problems or accidents.

B Leinders · Post by **B Leinders** » 09 Mar 2010, 17:34

mario wrote:barring mechanical problems or accidents.

Probably Sauber thought of this when they gave de la Rosa a drive (next to Cowboyashi)

CarlosFerreira · Post by **CarlosFerreira** » 09 Mar 2010, 18:48

B Leinders wrote:
mario wrote:barring mechanical problems or accidents.

Probably Sauber thought of this when they gave de la Rosa a drive (next to Cowboyashi)

I knew there was a reason! - but wouldn't Heidfeld have been better, in that case?